Sun, Oct 4, 2026·Honda Center, Anaheim
Florida Panthers 2, Anaheim Ducks 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 19 | 09 | 19 | 04 | 231 |
| ANA | 15 | 18 | 03 | 14 | 320 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:18ANACutter GauthierPPAssists: Jackson LaCombe, Leo Carlsson · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 17:09FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: Sam Bennett, Matthew Tkachuk · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 0:47ANACutter GauthierPPAssists: Beckett Sennecke, Leo Carlsson · Snap, 0.15 xG1–2
- P3 18:10FLABrad MarchandAssists: Lars Eller · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- OT 4:14ANAMikael GranlundPPGWGAssists: Leo Carlsson, Cutter Gauthier · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:17FLACarter Verhaeghe: Holding2 min
- P1 9:12ANATravis Mitchell: Cross checking2 min
- P1 15:39FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 0:00FLALars Eller: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:31ANAA.J. Greer: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:54ANANoah Warren: Holding2 min
- P3 15:51ANAA.J. Greer: Tripping2 min
- OT 2:34FLAGustav Forsling: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Carlsson won the faceoff against Bennett
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestMarchand – Reinhart – Tkachuk8:52
xG 0.47–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk11:45
xG 0.82–0.49 (63%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Luostarinen – Lundell – Vilmanis10:23
xG 0.45–0.15 (76%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Eller – Hathaway – Imama5:12
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Balinskis11:51
xG 0.84–0.00 (100%)attempts 16–2goals 1–0
- Jones – Mikkola13:40
xG 0.46–0.08 (86%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Forsling14:11
xG 0.40–0.40 (50%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestPoehling – Nesterenko – Colangelo7:30
xG 0.36–0.12 (75%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Caulfield – Malott – Washe6:24
xG 0.10–0.12 (46%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Killorn – Granlund – Sennecke10:03
xG 0.03–0.17 (15%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Gauthier – Carlsson – Sennecke2:21
xG 0.12–0.31 (28%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hinds – Warren11:29
xG 0.33–0.39 (46%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Mintyukov – Mitchell10:37
xG 0.18–0.61 (23%)attempts 2–12goals 0–0
- LaCombe – Luneau17:20
xG 0.38–0.93 (29%)attempts 16–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).