Tue, Oct 6, 2026·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Vegas Golden Knights 6, Seattle Kraken 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 29 | 312 | 17 | 628 |
| SEA | 011 | 08 | 28 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:02VGKVictor OlofssonAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Tomas Hertl · Deflected, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 15:58VGKTomas HertlPPAssists: Mark Stone, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–0
- P2 1:43VGKMark StoneSHGWGAssists: Jack Eichel · Snap, 0.13 xG3–0
- P2 13:07VGKVictor OlofssonAssists: Tomas Hertl, Trevor Connelly · Snap, 0.12 xG4–0
- P2 19:29VGKJack EichelUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG5–0
- P3 4:52SEAShane WrightAssists: Kaapo Kakko, Cale Fleury · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–1
- P3 9:43VGKTomas HertlPPAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.23 xG6–1
- P3 15:00SEAJared McCannPPAssists: Jordan Eberle, Kaapo Kakko · Wrist, 0.09 xG6–2
Penalties (17)
- P1 0:15VGKMarc Gatcomb: Boarding2 min
- P1 13:02SEAMackie Samoskevich: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P1 15:49SEABrandon Montour: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 0:17VGKNic Dowd: Holding2 min
- P2 14:17VGKBrett Howden: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 7:38SEAChandler Stephenson: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:03SEABen Meyers: Boarding5 min · PPG
- P3 8:03SEABen Meyers: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 9:21SEABrandon Montour: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:21VGKMark Stone: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:21SEABrandon Montour: Misconduct10 min
- P3 12:54VGKRasmus Andersson: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:54VGKRasmus Andersson: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:54SEAVince Dunn: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:54VGKJeremy Lauzon: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 15:03VGKMarc Gatcomb: Fighting5 min
- P3 15:03SEARyan Winterton: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gaudreau won the faceoff against Dowd
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStone – Barbashev – Eichel9:54
xG 0.71–0.00 (100%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Hertl – Olofsson – Connelly7:33
xG 0.62–0.08 (88%)attempts 9–4goals 2–1
- Dowd – Gatcomb – Bowman7:15
xG 0.48–0.43 (53%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Barbashev – Bowman2:05
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Theodore12:22
xG 0.72–0.06 (92%)attempts 18–4goals 2–0
- Andersson – Wotherspoon12:49
xG 0.94–0.81 (54%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
- Hanifin – Lauzon13:09
xG 0.48–0.59 (45%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestKakko – Wright – Catton9:01
xG 0.71–0.37 (66%)attempts 14–8goals 1–1
- McCann – Beniers – Samoskevich7:41
xG 0.43–0.40 (51%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Winterton – Meyers6:43
xG 0.13–0.41 (24%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
- Eberle – Stephenson – McMann10:16
xG 0.00–0.61 (0%)attempts 2–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Montour3:59
xG 0.35–0.18 (66%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Dunn – Evans3:52
xG 0.34–0.32 (52%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Dunn – Fleury3:25
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).