Wed, Oct 7, 2026·Honda Center, Anaheim
Edmonton Oilers 5, Anaheim Ducks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 06 | 511 | 02 | 519 |
| ANA | 216 | 05 | 010 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:11ANABeckett SenneckePPAssists: Mikael Granlund, Leo Carlsson · Snap, 0.25 xG0–1
- P1 15:28ANABeckett SenneckePPAssists: Leo Carlsson, Jackson LaCombe · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 0:11EDMEvan BouchardAssists: Leon Draisaitl · Slap, 0.01 xG1–2
- P2 6:30EDMKasperi KapanenPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard · Snap, 0.15 xG2–2
- P2 14:12EDMEvan BouchardGWGAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid · Slap, 0.12 xG3–2
- P2 16:49EDMVasily PodkolzinAssists: Leon Draisaitl · Snap, 0.22 xG4–2
- P2 19:08EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Mattias Ekholm · Snap, 0.06 xG5–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 3:08EDMJosh Samanski: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 6:27ANACutter Gauthier: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 14:43EDMJake Walman: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 16:58ANALeo Carlsson: Interference2 min
- P2 3:39EDMConnor Murphy: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:55ANAJudd Caulfield: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 6:55EDMConnor Murphy: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 18:48EDMConnor Murphy: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:48ANABeckett Sennecke: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:28EDMJosh Samanski: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:26ANANikita Nesterenko: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:25EDMIsaac Howard: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:10EDMConnor Murphy: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Carlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestDraisaitl – McDavid – Podkolzin10:32
xG 1.02–0.27 (79%)attempts 15–10goals 3–0
- Dickinson – Kapanen – Frederic5:27
xG 0.29–0.20 (59%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Joseph – Formenton – Michaels7:18
xG 0.16–0.36 (31%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
- Jones – Howard – Samanski5:31
xG 0.00–0.25 (0%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard9:09
xG 0.96–0.36 (73%)attempts 12–10goals 3–0
- Ekholm – Murphy2:45
xG 0.06–0.03 (66%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Shea – Bouchard2:50
xG 0.00–0.03 (7%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Granlund – Sennecke3:16
xG 0.48–0.07 (87%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Poehling – Nesterenko – Klepov4:31
xG 0.15–0.04 (77%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Granlund – Sennecke – Klepov2:15
xG 0.08–0.11 (42%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Gauthier – Carlsson – Sennecke3:45
xG 0.18–0.22 (45%)attempts 6–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLuneau – Mintyukov4:32
xG 0.60–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 0–0
- Hinds – Warren8:20
xG 0.54–0.04 (92%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Mintyukov – Mitchell8:56
xG 0.60–0.52 (53%)attempts 16–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).