Thu, Oct 8, 2026·UBS Arena, Elmont
Chicago Blackhawks 1, New York Islanders 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 05 | 011 | 17 | 123 |
| NYI | 16 | 27 | 16 | 419 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:01NYIBo HorvatPPAssists: Matthew Schaefer · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 6:44NYIEmil HeinemanGWGAssists: Matias Maccelli, Adam Pelech · Snap, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 9:38NYIAnthony DuclairAssists: Logan Stanley, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Snap, 0.12 xG0–3
- P3 17:26CHIFrank NazarAssists: Patrick Kane, Sam Rinzel · Slap, 0.17 xG1–3
- P3 18:27NYIBo HorvatENAssists: Logan Stanley · Snap, 0.29 xG1–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 5:23CHIWyatt Kaiser: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:26NYIAnthony Duclair: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 15:04NYIAnthony Duclair: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 18:58CHIOliver Moore: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:18NYIScott Mayfield: Interference2 min
- P3 18:27CHIFrank Nazar: Match penalty5 min
- P3 18:27CHIFrank Nazar: Major5 min
- P3 18:27CHITyler Bertuzzi: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:27NYILogan Stanley: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:46NYIAnthony Duclair: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:46CHIWyatt Kaiser: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Frondell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestGreenway – Smith – Greene10:02
xG 0.78–0.34 (70%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Kantserov – Frondell12:05
xG 0.52–0.30 (64%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Toninato – Donato – Moore2:25
xG 0.06–0.09 (40%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Toninato – Donato – Lardis2:19
xG 0.15–0.21 (42%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKaiser – Rinzel9:44
xG 0.50–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Cole – Vlasic10:13
xG 0.46–0.20 (69%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Kaiser – Levshunov4:14
xG 0.15–0.17 (47%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Horvat – Heineman9:12
xG 0.44–0.07 (87%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Cizikas – Palat – Maccelli8:20
xG 0.34–0.22 (61%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Schenn – Ritchie – Eklund9:38
xG 0.35–0.48 (42%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Pageau – Duclair – Holmstrom9:30
xG 0.06–0.29 (17%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock11:01
xG 0.39–0.27 (59%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Mayfield – DeAngelo7:35
xG 0.29–0.26 (53%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Stanley – Schaefer15:03
xG 0.41–0.40 (51%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).