Thu, Oct 8, 2026·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
San Jose Sharks 3, St. Louis Blues 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 03 | 112 | 111 | 11 | 327 |
| STL | 111 | 012 | 13 | 00 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:52STLConnor McMichaelAssists: Mason McTavish, Jonatan Berggren · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 8:48SJSTyler ToffoliAssists: Michael Misa, Jacob Trouba · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P3 1:39STLDillon DubeSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 6:05SJSCollin GrafAssists: Sam Dickinson, Tyler Toffoli · Snap, 0.18 xG2–2
- OT 1:03SJSDarnell NurseGWGAssists: Ivar Stenberg, Alexander Wennberg · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:28SJSMichael Kesselring: Cross checking2 min
- P1 10:30STLAdam Jiricek: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:39STLJoel Hofer: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:21STLCam Fowler: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:14SJSIvar Stenberg: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:55STLBrandon Carlo: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McTavish won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Wennberg – Sherwood – Stenberg10:16
xG 0.50–0.45 (52%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Graf – Misa8:58
xG 0.41–0.44 (48%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Goodrow – Dellandrea – Ostapchuk8:13
xG 0.10–0.33 (23%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Marchment – Smith – Chernyshov11:27
xG 0.35–0.88 (28%)attempts 7–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Orlov – Nurse2:26
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Trouba – Nurse2:34
xG 0.11–0.11 (50%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Nurse – Kesselring14:46
xG 0.34–0.40 (46%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestThomas – Holloway – Snuggerud12:20
xG 0.82–0.13 (87%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Johnston – Dube – Suter7:08
xG 0.25–0.26 (49%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Berggren – McMichael – McTavish10:40
xG 0.62–0.66 (49%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
- Buchnevich – Neighbours – Dvorsky10:52
xG 0.26–0.33 (44%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBroberg – Jiricek10:45
xG 0.86–0.25 (78%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Parayko – Barron8:55
xG 0.45–0.14 (76%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Fowler – Carlo12:53
xG 0.86–0.57 (60%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).