Fri, Oct 9, 2026·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Seattle Kraken 6, Detroit Red Wings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 15 | 412 | 17 | 624 |
| DET | 116 | 113 | 111 | 340 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:19DETViktor ArvidssonPPAssists: Lucas Raymond, Moritz Seider · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 14:52SEABerkly CattonAssists: Kaapo Kakko, Josh Mahura · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 4:00DETWilliam WallinderAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Michael Brandsegg-Nygård · Snap, 0.01 xG1–2
- P2 4:39SEAFrederick GaudreauAssists: Ryan Winterton, Ben Meyers · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 6:59SEAMackie SamoskevichAssists: Jared McCann · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–2
- P2 7:44SEAFrederick GaudreauGWGAssists: Ryan Winterton, Ben Meyers · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–2
- P2 14:05SEABen MeyersAssists: Berkly Catton, Brandon Montour · Snap, 0.11 xG5–2
- P3 11:53SEAVince DunnPPAssists: Chandler Stephenson, Brandon Montour · Snap, 0.18 xG6–2
- P3 15:27DETMichael Brandsegg-NygårdUnassisted · Wrist, 0.24 xG6–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:33SEAJordan Eberle: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 17:30DETMichael Brandsegg-Nygård: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:49SEAChandler Stephenson: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:53SEABen Meyers: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:24DETKeegan Kolesar: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 11:25DETBen Chiarot: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Finnie won the faceoff against Beniers
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestMcCann – Beniers – Samoskevich9:15
xG 0.47–0.35 (58%)attempts 6–15goals 1–1
- Kakko – Wright – Catton7:55
xG 0.64–0.70 (48%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Gaudreau – Winterton – Meyers10:42
xG 0.56–0.63 (47%)attempts 9–14goals 2–0
- Eberle – Stephenson – McMann12:10
xG 0.17–0.51 (25%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMontour – Evans18:02
xG 0.79–0.65 (55%)attempts 17–23goals 3–0
- Mahura – Ottavainen10:39
xG 0.75–0.79 (49%)attempts 8–14goals 2–0
- Larsson – Dunn16:33
xG 0.43–0.86 (33%)attempts 13–27goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestLarkin – Arvidsson – Raymond12:27
xG 0.80–0.27 (75%)attempts 17–5goals 0–1
- DeBrincat – Finnie – Brandsegg-Nygård11:50
xG 0.97–0.55 (64%)attempts 19–6goals 1–1
- Dries – Mazur – Danielson8:31
xG 0.92–0.64 (59%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
- Copp – Kolesar – Rasmussen10:25
xG 0.31–0.33 (48%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeider – Johansson15:08
xG 1.16–0.17 (87%)attempts 26–8goals 1–0
- Faulk – Wallinder12:24
xG 0.68–0.57 (54%)attempts 19–9goals 0–3
- Chiarot – Johansson12:43
xG 1.08–1.01 (52%)attempts 19–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).