Fri, Oct 9, 2026·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Anaheim Ducks 5, Winnipeg Jets 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 14 | 15 | 38 | 517 |
| WPG | 07 | 06 | 14 | 117 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:41ANAJudd CaulfieldAssists: Jeff Malott, Tim Washe · Snap, 0.22 xG1–0
- P2 5:20ANATim WasheGWGAssists: Jeff Malott, Judd Caulfield · Snap, 0.15 xG2–0
- P3 4:25ANASam ColangeloAssists: Beckett Sennecke · Snap, 0.22 xG3–0
- P3 10:36WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Mark Scheifele, Dylan DeMelo · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–1
- P3 14:06ANAMikael GranlundAssists: Noah Warren, Jackson LaCombe · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–1
- P3 19:19ANANikita NesterenkoENAssists: Beckett Sennecke, Mikael Granlund · Wrist, 0.81 xG5–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 19:46ANATravis Mitchell: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 19:46ANATravis Mitchell: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:46WPGAdam Lowry: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:54ANABeckett Sennecke: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:09ANARyan Poehling: Holding2 min
- P2 17:18ANARyan Poehling: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:02WPGBrad Lambert: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Granlund won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestCaulfield – Malott – Washe7:10
xG 0.68–0.09 (88%)attempts 9–7goals 2–0
- Killorn – Greer – Poehling10:50
xG 0.64–0.24 (73%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Colangelo – Carlsson – Sennecke8:46
xG 0.37–0.09 (80%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Gauthier – Carlsson – Sennecke3:34
xG 0.02–0.20 (11%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLaCombe – Warren16:24
xG 0.73–0.38 (66%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Hinds – Luneau10:59
xG 0.72–0.43 (63%)attempts 8–12goals 2–1
- Mintyukov – Mitchell12:30
xG 0.23–0.19 (56%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLowry – Iafallo – Rosen9:05
xG 0.26–0.08 (76%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Vilardi – Barron – Björck9:53
xG 0.22–0.13 (63%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Perfetti13:56
xG 0.61–0.66 (48%)attempts 13–13goals 1–1
- Namestnikov – Koepke – Lambert3:54
xG 0.02–0.70 (3%)attempts 3–9goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Samberg15:50
xG 0.52–0.19 (73%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Fleury – Bauer6:54
xG 0.17–0.55 (23%)attempts 5–9goals 0–2
- Ferraro – Pionk13:58
xG 0.36–0.85 (30%)attempts 14–13goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).