Sat, Oct 10, 2026·United Center, Chicago
Carolina Hurricanes 5, Chicago Blackhawks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 116 | 314 | 19 | 539 |
| CHI | 07 | 16 | 113 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:03CARMark JankowskiAssists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Eric Robinson · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 2:09CARSebastian AhoSHAssists: K'Andre Miller · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–0
- P2 3:28CARJackson BlakeGWGAssists: Logan Stankoven, Jordan Martinook · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–0
- P2 4:40CHIRoman KantserovUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–1
- P2 6:05CARTaylor HallAssists: Jackson Blake, Mike Reilly · Slap, 0.15 xG4–1
- P3 5:00CARJordan MartinookAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Mike Reilly · Backhand, 0.05 xG5–1
- P3 14:14CHIOliver MooreAssists: Wyatt Kaiser, Ryan Donato · Wrist, 0.12 xG5–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 5:58CHIWyatt Kaiser: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:46CARWilliam Carrier: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 0:59CARJordan Martinook: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:53CHIArtyom Levshunov: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Aho won the faceoff against Frondell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestHall – Stankoven – Blake9:55
xG 1.14–0.40 (74%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Jankowski – Robinson – Kotkaniemi8:42
xG 0.57–0.27 (68%)attempts 9–6goals 1–1
- Staal – Martinook – Ehlers8:24
xG 0.18–0.01 (93%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Carrier – Aho – Svechnikov11:02
xG 0.83–0.70 (54%)attempts 21–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Gostisbehere13:34
xG 1.48–0.26 (85%)attempts 22–6goals 3–1
- Slavin – Chatfield15:36
xG 0.75–0.76 (50%)attempts 13–21goals 1–1
- Walker – Miller16:05
xG 0.66–0.90 (42%)attempts 19–14goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKane – Greene – Lardis9:45
xG 0.44–0.32 (58%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
- Teravainen – Toninato – Donato6:53
xG 0.21–0.19 (52%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Greenway – Smith – Moore9:26
xG 0.37–0.80 (32%)attempts 6–16goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Kantserov – Frondell10:02
xG 0.28–0.95 (23%)attempts 11–17goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestByram – Vlasic2:58
xG 0.29–0.09 (76%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Byram – Rinzel2:12
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Byram – Levshunov13:07
xG 0.50–1.12 (31%)attempts 15–13goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).