Sat, Oct 10, 2026·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Los Angeles Kings 1, Vegas Golden Knights 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 010 | 13 | 011 | 03 | 127 |
| VGK | 09 | 114 | 08 | 11 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:37VGKTrevor ConnellyPPAssists: Mark Stone, Mitch Marner · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 6:21LAKArtemi PanarinPPAssists: Adrian Kempe, Brandt Clarke · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- OT 2:40VGKMitch MarnerPPGWGAssists: Mark Stone, Trevor Connelly · Snap, 0.10 xG1–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 12:44VGKBrayden McNabb: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:14VGKNic Dowd: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:15LAKDrew Doughty: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 5:21VGKJeremy Lauzon: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:07VGKRasmus Andersson: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:07LAKBrandt Clarke: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:07LAKScott Laughton: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:07VGKNic Dowd: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:08LAKBrian Dumoulin: Hooking2 min
- OT 2:34LAKScott Laughton: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Karlsson won the faceoff against Haula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestArmia – Laughton – Wright7:33
xG 0.26–0.09 (75%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Kempe – Panarin – Byfield11:04
xG 0.29–0.37 (44%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Haula – Moore – Laferriere10:20
xG 0.27–0.39 (42%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Perry – Lee – Helenius7:48
xG 0.17–0.29 (37%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdmundson – Clarke11:14
xG 0.25–0.14 (64%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Doughty – Dumoulin16:17
xG 0.50–0.84 (37%)attempts 20–18goals 0–0
- Ceci – Anderson17:11
xG 0.28–1.08 (21%)attempts 10–26goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestHertl – Lavoie – Connelly8:20
xG 0.57–0.12 (83%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Stone – Barbashev – Eichel12:56
xG 0.65–0.21 (75%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Dowd – Gatcomb – Bowman7:48
xG 0.21–0.07 (75%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Marner – Howden11:39
xG 0.38–0.25 (60%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Theodore17:34
xG 0.87–0.48 (65%)attempts 22–17goals 0–0
- Andersson – Wotherspoon14:41
xG 0.57–0.38 (60%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Hanifin – Lauzon13:33
xG 0.33–0.16 (68%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).