Sun, Oct 11, 2026·Madison Square Garden, New York
Vancouver Canucks 2, New York Rangers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 17 | 110 | 04 | 221 |
| NYR | 15 | 210 | 310 | 625 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:27NYRTye KartyeAssists: J.T. Miller, Alexis Lafrenière · Snap, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 17:04VANJake DeBruskAssists: Jonathan Lekkerimäki · Snap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 2:09NYRWill CuylleAssists: Noah Laba · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 16:56VANElias PetterssonSHAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Drew O'Connor · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 18:25NYRTye KartyeGWGAssists: J.T. Miller, Vladislav Gavrikov · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 1:04NYRAlexis LafrenièrePPAssists: Gabe Perreault, Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–4
- P3 5:57NYRGabe PerreaultAssists: Adam Fox, Mika Zibanejad · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–5
- P3 15:22NYRWill CuylleAssists: Eeli Tolvanen, Braden Schneider · Snap, 0.24 xG2–6
Penalties (3)
- P1 14:45NYRMika Zibanejad: Interference2 min
- P2 15:23VANGuillaume Brisebois: Holding2 min
- P2 19:17VANBrock Boeser: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pettersson won the faceoff against Miller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- Boeser – Cotter – Rossi12:02
xG 0.38–0.36 (51%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Räty – Sasson10:07
xG 0.22–0.28 (44%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Karlsson – O'Connor – Ohgren9:46
xG 0.61–0.81 (43%)attempts 11–13goals 0–2
- DeBrusk – Pettersson – Lekkerimäki9:23
xG 0.13–0.39 (26%)attempts 5–6goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Pettersson3:31
xG 0.43–0.11 (80%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Pettersson – Willander13:13
xG 0.52–0.23 (69%)attempts 18–5goals 1–0
- Brisebois – Hronek2:03
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestTolvanen – Cuylle – Laba9:48
xG 0.77–0.28 (74%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Miller – Kartye – Lafrenière12:52
xG 0.54–0.14 (79%)attempts 8–6goals 2–0
- Bjorkstrand – Chmelar – Beaudoin8:38
xG 0.23–0.49 (31%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Zibanejad – Dorofeyev – Perreault13:52
xG 0.34–0.66 (34%)attempts 10–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGavrikov – Fox15:47
xG 1.05–0.30 (78%)attempts 16–17goals 2–1
- Pettersson – Durzi16:43
xG 0.41–0.18 (69%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Schneider – Smits13:31
xG 0.37–0.81 (31%)attempts 7–17goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).