Mon, Oct 12, 2026·Grand Casino Arena, St. Paul
Vegas Golden Knights 2, Minnesota Wild 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 06 | 15 | 112 | 223 |
| MIN | 310 | 012 | 16 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:50MINMatt BoldyAssists: Olli Maatta, Quinn Hughes · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 14:32MINMaxim ShabanovPPAssists: Quinn Hughes · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P1 16:57MINDanila YurovGWGAssists: Bobby Brink, Rieger Lorenz · Snap, 0.17 xG0–3
- P2 2:37VGKRasmus AnderssonAssists: Tomas Hertl, Raphael Lavoie · Slap, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 9:25VGKWilliam KarlssonAssists: Brett Howden, Mitch Marner · Snap, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 18:38MINJoel Eriksson EkENAssists: Kirill Kaprizov · Wrist, 0.70 xG2–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:42MINDanila Yurov: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:15VGKDylan Coghlan: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 18:14MINJesper Wallstedt: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:14MINBlake Coleman: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:36MINRieger Lorenz: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:36VGKJeremy Lauzon: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:25MINDanila Yurov: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P3 19:05MINBlake Coleman: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Dowd
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestKarlsson – Marner – Howden11:28
xG 0.82–0.62 (57%)attempts 15–15goals 1–1
- Stone – Barbashev – Eichel9:11
xG 0.30–0.18 (62%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Barbashev – Bowman3:03
xG 0.23–0.12 (66%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Hertl – Lavoie – Connelly8:02
xG 0.16–0.45 (26%)attempts 7–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Theodore15:49
xG 0.77–0.56 (58%)attempts 20–15goals 0–0
- Hanifin – Coghlan3:00
xG 0.08–0.05 (64%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Andersson – Lauzon2:00
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestEriksson Ek – Kaprizov – Boldy12:43
xG 0.56–0.23 (71%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Brink – Lorenz – Yurov5:22
xG 0.31–0.18 (63%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- McCarron – Trenin – Sturm2:58
xG 0.14–0.03 (82%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Coleman – Hartman – Shabanov7:44
xG 0.18–0.66 (22%)attempts 3–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Hunt7:06
xG 0.52–0.41 (56%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
- Maatta – Hughes3:10
xG 0.17–0.12 (59%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Spurgeon – Hughes14:29
xG 0.71–0.66 (52%)attempts 12–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).