Tue, Oct 13, 2026·Madison Square Garden, New York
Tampa Bay Lightning 1, New York Rangers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 19 | 09 | 08 | 126 |
| NYR | 28 | 19 | 16 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:02NYRAlexis LafrenièreAssists: Tye Kartye, Adam Fox · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 12:47NYRAlexis LafrenièreGWGAssists: Tye Kartye, J.T. Miller · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
- P1 17:26TBLZemgus GirgensonsAssists: Pontus Holmberg, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 18:26NYRWill CuylleAssists: Sean Durzi, Marcus Pettersson · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 17:16NYRMika ZibanejadENAssists: Adam Fox, Marcus Pettersson · Wrist, 0.60 xG1–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:03TBLJohn Carlson: Slashing2 min
- P1 7:54TBLJeffrey Viel: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:57NYRAdam Fox: Holding2 min
- P1 14:17TBLJeffrey Viel: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:17NYRMatt Rempe: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:42TBLErik Cernak: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:28NYRBraden Schneider: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:29NYRSean Durzi: Cross checking2 min
- P3 1:57TBLAnthony Cirelli: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:34NYRTye Kartye: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Girgensons
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Point – Goncalves5:54
xG 0.42–0.02 (94%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Girgensons – Holmberg – Mikheyev10:27
xG 0.36–0.22 (62%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Kucherov – Guentzel – Point2:35
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Cirelli – Hagel4:24
xG 0.18–0.28 (40%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Moser12:17
xG 0.81–0.15 (84%)attempts 17–5goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Cernak8:32
xG 0.23–0.23 (51%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- D'Astous – Crozier10:16
xG 0.36–0.36 (50%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Kartye – Lafrenière9:49
xG 0.53–0.15 (78%)attempts 9–6goals 2–0
- Tolvanen – Cuylle – Laba8:58
xG 0.28–0.29 (49%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Zibanejad – Dorofeyev – Perreault10:20
xG 0.29–0.35 (45%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
- Bjorkstrand – Rempe – Beaudoin2:31
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPettersson – Durzi15:34
xG 0.82–0.59 (58%)attempts 15–11goals 2–0
- Schneider – Smits9:41
xG 0.02–0.32 (5%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
- Gavrikov – Fox12:17
xG 0.20–0.62 (24%)attempts 5–20goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).