Tue, Oct 13, 2026·UBS Arena, Elmont
Vancouver Canucks 2, New York Islanders 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 07 | 211 | 08 | 226 |
| NYI | 212 | 07 | 119 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:57NYIKyle PalmieriAssists: Matthew Kessel, Bo Horvat · Tip-in, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 15:50NYIMatias MaccelliAssists: Matthew Schaefer · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 7:52VANMax SassonAssists: Arshdeep Bains, Jamie Oleksiak · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 18:55VANBrock BoeserPPAssists: Elias Pettersson, Filip Hronek · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 5:38NYIKyle PalmieriGWGAssists: Matias Maccelli, Matthew Schaefer · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 6:04NYIBrayden Schenn: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:42NYILogan Stanley: Holding2 min
- P1 19:09VANLuke Schenn: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:55VANElias Pettersson: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:28NYIKyle Palmieri: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 0:00NYITony DeAngelo: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 18:19VANZeev Buium: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:46NYILogan Stanley: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:46VANDrew O'Connor: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:41NYIAdam Pelech: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Rossi
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestDeBrusk – Pettersson – Lekkerimäki10:17
xG 0.62–0.27 (69%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Boeser – O'Connor – Ohgren8:48
xG 0.71–0.56 (56%)attempts 9–7goals 0–2
- Gallagher – Bains – Sasson7:32
xG 0.45–0.30 (60%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Cotter – Rossi9:06
xG 0.05–0.22 (18%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHronek – Pettersson10:36
xG 0.48–0.28 (63%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Hronek – Buium2:14
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Willander – Buium2:41
xG 0.10–0.04 (71%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestCizikas – Holmstrom – Heineman2:32
xG 0.52–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Horvat – Maccelli4:37
xG 0.32–0.17 (66%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Cizikas – Holmstrom – Maccelli5:23
xG 0.34–0.22 (61%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Palmieri – Horvat – Heineman6:32
xG 0.14–0.08 (62%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeAngelo – Schaefer4:53
xG 0.41–0.10 (80%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Pelech – Pulock11:28
xG 0.66–0.42 (61%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- DeAngelo – Kessel8:41
xG 0.35–0.58 (37%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).