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Ice Lab

Right wing · #15

Justin Danforth

Columbus Blue Jackets Buffalo Sabres(traded during the season)
Age
33
Shoots
Right
Height
173 cm
Weight
88 kg
Born
Oshawa, CAN
Draft
Undrafted

Career · 2021–22 to 2026–27

Games
188
Goals
31
Points
64
TOI per game
13:47
xGF% (5v5)
47.3%
Goals above expected
−4.0
ShowAll teamsColumbus Blue JacketsBuffalo Sabres

Season by season

The regular-season line for each season, with the total, by team for traded players.

2021–22CBJ4510414−512:347213.9%18.447.7%
2022–23CBJ6213−313:231020.0%01.956.5%
2023–24CBJ71101626−1014:168611.6%013.246.1%
2024–25CBJ6191221−614:23949.6%111.448.7%
2025–26BUF4000−211:4220.0%00.119.6%
2026–27BUF100008:170–00.0100.0%
Total2 teams188313364−2613:4726411.7%235.047.3%

Form

Rolling averages smooth out single games so the trend shows.

Form, ten-game rolling

Points and individual expected goals per game (left scale), averaged over the previous ten games. Ice time is on the second chart.

Points per gameixG per gameTOI per game (minutes)
00.20.40.60.820406080100120140160180
10m12m14m16m18m20m20406080100120140160180Game

Player card

Model-based

How 2021–22 to 2026–27 compares with everyone else at the position over the same seasons, and the players with the most similar profile.

Overall rating

3rd line

47th percentile among qualified forwards, blending scoring 40%, play-driving 40%, usage 20%.

  1. 1st line
  2. 2nd line
  3. 3rd line
  4. 4th line
  5. Extra / AHL

Scoring

3rd line
  • Goals /600.7252nd pct
  • Assists /600.7634th pct
  • ixG /600.8160th pct
  • Goals above expected−4.032nd pct

Play-driving

3rd line
  • xGF% (5v5)47.3%37th pct
  • CF% (5v5)48.5%47th pct
  • Relative xGF%+1.370th pct
  • Penalty diff /600.0545th pct

Usage

3rd line
  • TOI per game13:4752nd pct
  • PP time share10.4%36th pct
  • Offensive zone starts41.4%21st pct
  • Quality of competition24.1%50th pct

Percentiles among forwards with 200+ minutes at 5-on-5 and 20+ games. Ratings rank each column's average percentile among the same players and read it as a role on a depth chart (how).

Most similar players this season

  1. Casey CizikasNYI0.91
  2. Noel AcciariSTL/PIT0.88
  3. Nico SturmSJS/FLA0.86
  4. Michael McCarronNSH/MIN0.85
  5. Arttu Hyry0.83
  6. Ben Meyers0.83

Faceoffs

How often Danforth wins the draw over 2021–22 to 2026–27, against whom and where, and what a win leads to. Ranked among players with 1032+ draws over the same seasons.

Win rate

49.8%

632–636 · #93 of 181 regulars, 49th percentile

Against an average centre

50.4%

Opponents won 50.5% of their draws; an average centre would have won 49.5% against them.

Wins above average

+4

Draws won beyond what an average centre facing the same opponents would have won.

Draws per game

7.7

1,268 draws in all.

By dot, attacking to the right

50%199 · +1.447%94 · +2.953%253 · +2.955%20 · +0.367%42 · +4.067%24 · +0.943%47 · +0.940%122 · +2.349%467 · +2.9Attacking zone →← Defending zone

Win rate at each dot; the small numbers are draws and the xG swing (×100) of winning rather than losing there.

By zone

  • Offensive zone51.3% 178–169
  • Neutral zone52.7% 175–157
  • Defensive zone47.4% 279–310

By strength

  • Even strength51.9% 531–492
  • Power play50.0% 18–18
  • Shorthanded39.7% 83–126

What a win leads to

Shot attempts in the next 20 seconds, for minus against, per 100 draws: +13 after a win, −27 after a loss. Each win was worth 2.6 expected goals per 100 draws more than a loss.

Most-faced opponents

Season by season

SeasonDrawsWin rateAgainst average
2021–2219953.8%53.6%
2022–231330.8%32.8%
2023–2435748.5%48.8%
2024–2566149.5%50.2%
2025–263154.8%57.3%
2026–27757.1%56.6%

Finishing

Model-based

Did the goals match the chances?

Goals against expected goals

Cumulative goals (solid) and individual xG (dashed) through the season. The gap is finishing: above the dashed line, the player scored more than an average shooter would from the same chances.

−4.0 goals above expected

01020304020406080100120140160180Game

Goals above expected, everyone at the same position with 20+ games

−40−200+20+40+60+80

Speed and tracking

From the NHL's EDGE tracking system (2021–22 on): skating speed, shot speed, distance and zone time, for the selected seasons and then every tracked season, to show improvement or decline.

Tracking data (NHL EDGE)

Values from the NHL's puck and player tracking, with the NHL's own league percentile for each. Missing values mean the player wasn't tracked enough.

Tracking

  • Top skating speed31.9 km/h6th pct
  • Speed bursts over 20 mph00th pct
  • Hardest shot–
  • Distance skated2 km1st pct
  • Offensive-zone time35.8%8th pct
Tracking, season by season

Each season against the other forwards that season with 20+ games. A season in progress appears once half its games are played, as provisional: season bests only grow. Bursts and distance are per 60 minutes of ice time, so seasons with fewer games still compare. Percentiles are on these rates, so they can differ from the NHL's, which are on season totals.

This playerMedian forwardMiddle half (25th–75th percentile)Hollow dot: too few games to rank, or a season in progress (*, dashed). Dotted line: no NHL games that season.

Top skating speed

33.9 km/h2nd pct

▼ −2.6 km/h since 2024–25

33343536373821–2222–2323–2424–2525–262021–22: 36.9 km/h, 81st percentile (45 games)2022–23: 35.8 km/h, 43rd percentile (6 games, too few to rank reliably)2023–24: 36.9 km/h, 83rd percentile (71 games)2024–25: 36.4 km/h, 61st percentile (61 games)2025–26: 33.9 km/h, 2nd percentile (4 games, too few to rank reliably)

Bursts over 20 mph per 60

3.832nd pct

▼ −7.3 since 2024–25

0510152021–2222–2323–2424–2525–262021–22: 17.9, 98th percentile (45 games)2022–23: 15.7, 98th percentile (6 games, too few to rank reliably)2023–24: 12.5, 93rd percentile (71 games)2024–25: 11.1, 91st percentile (61 games)2025–26: 3.8, 32nd percentile (4 games, too few to rank reliably)

Distance skated per 60

15.3 km33rd pct

▼ −0.0 km since 2024–25

14.51515.51616.521–2222–2323–2424–2525–262021–22: 15.8 km, 63rd percentile (45 games)2022–23: 15.3 km, 41st percentile (6 games, too few to rank reliably)2023–24: 15.3 km, 31st percentile (71 games)2024–25: 15.3 km, 28th percentile (61 games)2025–26: 15.3 km, 33rd percentile (4 games, too few to rank reliably)

Hardest shot

111.4 km/h0th pct

▼ −28.9 km/h since 2024–25

10012014016021–2222–2323–2424–2525–262021–22: 136.7 km/h, 22nd percentile (45 games)2022–23: 134.2 km/h, 13th percentile (6 games, too few to rank reliably)2023–24: 134.3 km/h, 16th percentile (71 games)2024–25: 140.3 km/h, 51st percentile (61 games)2025–26: 111.4 km/h, 0th percentile (4 games, too few to rank reliably)

Offensive-zone time

35.8%1st pct

▼ −3.1 points since 2024–25

34%36%38%40%42%44%46%21–2222–2323–2424–2525–262021–22: 39.6%, 24th percentile (45 games)2022–23: 41.1%, 41st percentile (6 games, too few to rank reliably)2023–24: 39.5%, 23rd percentile (71 games)2024–25: 39.0%, 15th percentile (61 games)2025–26: 35.8%, 1st percentile (4 games, too few to rank reliably)