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Ice Lab

Centre · #41

Nolan Patrick

Philadelphia Flyers Vegas Golden Knights(traded during the season)
Age
28
Shoots
Right
Height
188 cm
Weight
91 kg
Born
Winnipeg, CAN
Draft
2017, round 1, #2 (PHI)

Career · 4 seasons

Games
222
Goals
32
Points
77
TOI per game
13:49
xGF% (5v5)
49.8%
Goals above expected
−8.7
ShowAll teamsPhiladelphia FlyersVegas Golden Knights

Season by season

The regular-season line for each season, with the total, by team for traded players.

2017–18PHI73131730+113:4312710.2%814.050.3%
2018–19PHI72131831−815:0511511.3%215.647.9%
After a break: 2020–21PHI52459−3013:17498.2%36.750.3%
2021–22VGK25257+111:30345.9%14.455.0%
Total2 teams222324577−3613:493259.8%1440.749.8%

Form

Rolling averages smooth out single games so the trend shows.

Form, ten-game rolling

Points and individual expected goals per game (left scale), averaged over the previous ten games. Ice time is on the second chart.

Points per gameixG per gameTOI per game (minutes)
00.20.40.60.8150100150200
10m12m14m16m18m50100150200Game

Player card

Model-based

How 4 seasons compares with everyone else at the position over the same seasons, and the players with the most similar profile.

Overall rating

3rd line

54th percentile among qualified forwards, blending scoring 40%, play-driving 40%, usage 20%.

  1. 1st line
  2. 2nd line
  3. 3rd line
  4. 4th line
  5. Extra / AHL

Scoring

3rd line
  • Goals /600.6343rd pct
  • Assists /600.8848th pct
  • ixG /600.8061st pct
  • Goals above expected−8.78th pct

Play-driving

2nd line
  • xGF% (5v5)49.8%58th pct
  • CF% (5v5)48.9%47th pct
  • Relative xGF%+0.665th pct
  • Penalty diff /600.2974th pct

Usage

3rd line
  • TOI per game13:4954th pct
  • PP time share33.7%66th pct
  • Offensive zone starts62.7%72nd pct
  • Quality of competition23.7%46th pct

Percentiles among forwards with 200+ minutes at 5-on-5 and 20+ games. Ratings rank each column's average percentile among the same players and read it as a role on a depth chart (how).

Most similar players this season

  1. Colin WilsonCOL0.81
  2. Cody Glass0.73
  3. Nikolay GoldobinVAN0.71
  4. Brendan LeipsicVGK/LAK0.70
  5. Gabriel VilardiLAK0.67
  6. Victor RaskCAR/MIN0.66

Faceoffs

How often Patrick wins the draw over 4 seasons, against whom and where, and what a win leads to. Ranked among players with 744+ draws over the same seasons.

Win rate

51.0%

1084–1040 · #79 of 196 regulars, 60th percentile

Against an average centre

50.7%

Opponents won 49.7% of their draws; an average centre would have won 50.3% against them.

Wins above average

+15

Draws won beyond what an average centre facing the same opponents would have won.

Draws per game

9.7

2,124 draws in all.

By dot, attacking to the right

53%458 · +1.049%258 · +1.151%454 · +1.048%77 · +0.841%68 · +2.247%70 · +0.549%84 · +1.153%253 · +1.752%402 · +1.6Attacking zone →← Defending zone

Win rate at each dot; the small numbers are draws and the xG swing (×100) of winning rather than losing there.

By zone

  • Offensive zone50.5% 359–352
  • Neutral zone50.3% 381–376
  • Defensive zone52.4% 344–312

By strength

  • Even strength50.6% 1000–978
  • Power play57.5% 69–51
  • Shorthanded57.7% 15–11

What a win leads to

Shot attempts in the next 20 seconds, for minus against, per 100 draws: +13 after a win, −15 after a loss. Each win was worth 1.2 expected goals per 100 draws more than a loss.

Most-faced opponents

Season by season

SeasonDrawsWin rateAgainst average
2017–1874350.6%50.8%
2018–1977951.2%50.5%
2020–2143052.6%52.1%
2021–2217248.3%47.8%

Finishing

Model-based

Did the goals match the chances?

Goals against expected goals

Cumulative goals (solid) and individual xG (dashed) through the season. The gap is finishing: above the dashed line, the player scored more than an average shooter would from the same chances.

−8.7 goals above expected

01020304050100150200Game

Goals above expected, everyone at the same position with 20+ games

−200+20+40+60

Speed and tracking

From the NHL's EDGE tracking system (2021–22 on): skating speed, shot speed, distance and zone time, for the selected seasons and then every tracked season, to show improvement or decline.

Tracking data (NHL EDGE)

Values from the NHL's puck and player tracking, with the NHL's own league percentile for each. Missing values mean the player wasn't tracked enough.

Tracking

  • Top skating speed35.3 km/h42nd pct
  • Speed bursts over 20 mph4043rd pct
  • Hardest shot134.5 km/h33rd pct
  • Distance skated76 km31st pct
  • Offensive-zone time44.1%78th pct
Tracking, season by season

Each season against the other forwards that season with 20+ games. A season in progress appears once half its games are played, as provisional: season bests only grow. Bursts and distance are per 60 minutes of ice time, so seasons with fewer games still compare. Percentiles are on these rates, so they can differ from the NHL's, which are on season totals.

This playerMedian forwardMiddle half (25th–75th percentile)Hollow dot: too few games to rank, or a season in progress (*, dashed). Dotted line: no NHL games that season.

Top skating speed

35.3 km/h27th pct

2021–22 only

3535.53636.53721–222021–22: 35.3 km/h, 27th percentile (25 games)

Bursts over 20 mph per 60

8.377th pct

2021–22 only

24681021–222021–22: 8.3, 77th percentile (25 games)

Distance skated per 60

15.8 km62nd pct

2021–22 only

14.51515.51616.521–222021–22: 15.8 km, 62nd percentile (25 games)

Hardest shot

134.5 km/h16th pct

2021–22 only

13013514014515015521–222021–22: 134.5 km/h, 16th percentile (25 games)

Offensive-zone time

44.1%80th pct

2021–22 only

38%40%42%44%46%21–222021–22: 44.1%, 80th percentile (25 games)