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Ice Lab

Thu, Oct 1, 2009·TD Garden, Boston

Washington Capitals 4, Boston Bruins 1

Away

Washington Capitals

4

Final

Home

Boston Bruins

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 77% of the time.

BOS winsWSH wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
WSH110112212434
BOS0100713120

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 17:15WSHBrooks LaichPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Alex Ovechkin · Snap, 0.13 xG1–0
  2. P2 9:31WSHAlex OvechkinGWGAssists: Alexander Semin, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–0
  3. P3 0:16WSHBrooks LaichPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Alexander Semin · Wrist, 0.48 xG3–0
  4. P3 1:57WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Tom Poti, Brooks Laich · Snap, 0.21 xG4–0
  5. P3 7:56BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Steve Begin, Mark Stuart · Backhand, 0.14 xG4–1
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 13:22BOSSteve Begin: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 14:16WSHMike Green: Tripping2 min
  3. P1 17:00BOSMichael Ryder: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
  4. P1 18:29WSHJohn Erskine: Holding the stick2 min
  5. P2 9:47WSHMilan Jurcina: Holding2 min
  6. P2 13:25WSHMike Knuble: High sticking2 min
  7. P2 0:00BOSZdeno Chara: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  8. P3 5:56BOSMarco Sturm: Holding2 min
  9. P3 9:43BOSShawn Thornton: Fighting5 min
  10. P3 9:43WSHJohn Erskine: Fighting5 min
  11. P3 18:29WSHAlex Ovechkin: Interference goalkeeper2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

WSH00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0BOS
43% to win57% to win
← WSH attackBOS attack →
  1. P1 20:00Morrison won the faceoff against Savard
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

WSHBOS
34Shots on goal20
2.7Expected goals1.3
56Shot attempts47
30Faceoffs won19
4Power plays5
15Penalty minutes13
24Hits32
13Blocked shots16
0Giveaways6
7Takeaways2

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

BOS 1.3 xGWSH 2.7 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

BOSWSH

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.

Excitement 16/100 · #1033 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.73 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
WSH 100%5050%50BOS 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +17 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 77% of the time.

BOS winsWSH wins

Simulated goal difference (BOS − WSH), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).