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Ice Lab

Sat, Oct 3, 2009·Philips Arena, Atlanta

Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Atlanta Thrashers 6

Away

Tampa Bay Lightning

3

Final

Home

Atlanta Thrashers

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 68% of the time.

ATL winsTBL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
TBL012213113338
ATL28210210628

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 8:20ATLIlya KovalchukAssists: Bryan Little, Pavel Kubina · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
  2. P1 11:23ATLAnssi SalmelaAssists: Eric Boulton, Chris Thorburn · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
  3. P2 9:01ATLZach BogosianAssists: Rich Peverley, Toby Enstrom · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–3
  4. P2 12:42ATLRich PeverleyGWGAssists: Evander Kane · Snap, 0.11 xG0–4
  5. P2 14:01TBLMartin St. LouisAssists: Victor Hedman, Mattias Ohlund · Tip-in, 0.01 xG1–4
  6. P2 19:15TBLMartin St. LouisPPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Alex Tanguay · Slap, 0.08 xG2–4
  7. P3 2:11TBLAndrej MeszarosAssists: Matt Walker, Vincent Lecavalier · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–4
  8. P3 11:52ATLRich PeverleyPPAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Maxim Afinogenov · Wrist, 0.31 xG3–5
  9. P3 13:15ATLIlya KovalchukAssists: Bryan Little, Toby Enstrom · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–6
Penalties (20)
  1. P1 1:12TBLAlex Tanguay: High sticking2 min
  2. P1 15:14TBLAndrej Meszaros: Holding2 min
  3. P1 15:14ATLMaxim Afinogenov: Holding2 min
  4. P1 18:54TBLKurtis Foster: Tripping2 min
  5. P2 7:44TBLTodd Fedoruk: Cross checking2 min
  6. P2 7:44ATLIlya Kovalchuk: Slashing2 min
  7. P2 7:44TBLStephane Veilleux: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  8. P2 7:44ATLMark Popovic: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  9. P2 13:11TBLZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
  10. P2 13:11ATLChris Thorburn: Fighting5 min
  11. P2 17:42ATLPavel Kubina: Holding2 min · PPG
  12. P2 18:05TBLRyan Malone: Cross checking2 min
  13. P2 18:31ATLIlya Kovalchuk: Hooking2 min
  14. P3 4:52ATLEric Boulton: Fighting5 min
  15. P3 4:52TBLTodd Fedoruk: Fighting5 min
  16. P3 5:24ATLAnssi Salmela: Roughing2 min
  17. P3 10:06TBLPaul Ranger: Hooking2 min · PPG
  18. P3 13:47ATLTodd White: Slashing2 min
  19. P3 13:47TBLZenon Konopka: Roughing2 min
  20. P3 13:47TBLStephane Veilleux: Misconduct10 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

TBL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ATL
43% to win57% to win
← TBL attackATL attack →
  1. P1 20:00White won the faceoff against Halpern
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

TBLATL
38Shots on goal28
2.9Expected goals4.0
63Shot attempts48
25Faceoffs won32
3Power plays3
36Penalty minutes24
21Hits10
7Blocked shots14
2Giveaways7
12Takeaways13

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ATL 4.0 xGTBL 2.9 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ATLTBL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 87/100 · #131 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.05 · 8 goals in reach · 3-goal lead cutComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
TBL 100%5050%50ATL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 68% of the time.

ATL winsTBL wins

Simulated goal difference (ATL − TBL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).