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Ice Lab

Sat, Oct 3, 2009·Rexall Place, Edmonton

Calgary Flames 4, Edmonton Oilers 3

Away

Calgary Flames

4

Final

Home

Edmonton Oilers

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 51% of the time.

EDM winsCGY wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CGY261619421
EDM11411119334

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:52CGYCurtis GlencrossAssists: Dustin Boyd, Craig Conroy · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–0
  2. P1 6:14EDMDustin PennerAssists: Patrick O'Sullivan, Mike Comrie · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–1
  3. P1 12:09CGYDavid MossPPAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, Olli Jokinen · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–1
  4. P2 13:21CGYNigel DawesPPAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Jay Bouwmeester · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–1
  5. P2 17:57EDMGilbert BruleAssists: Dustin Penner, Lubomir Visnovsky · Slap, 0.05 xG3–2
  6. P3 13:01EDMSam GagnerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–3
  7. P3 19:11CGYDavid MossGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.04 xG4–3
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 4:03CGYJarome Iginla: Roughing2 min
  2. P1 4:03EDMSteve Staios: Roughing2 min
  3. P1 4:03CGYJarome Iginla: Roughing2 min
  4. P1 8:12CGYEric Nystrom: Roughing2 min
  5. P1 11:07EDMZack Stortini: High sticking2 min · PPG
  6. P2 2:38CGYBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
  7. P2 2:38EDMZack Stortini: Fighting5 min
  8. P2 5:11CGYCurtis Glencross: Tripping2 min
  9. P2 12:49EDMSteve Staios: Holding2 min · PPG
  10. P2 13:23CGYCraig Conroy: Fighting5 min
  11. P2 13:23EDMSam Gagner: Fighting5 min
  12. P2 14:10EDMEthan Moreau: High sticking2 min
  13. P2 19:12CGYDion Phaneuf: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CGY00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0EDM
43% to win57% to win
← CGY attackEDM attack →
  1. P1 20:00Langkow won the faceoff against Brule
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CGYEDM
21Shots on goal34
2.4Expected goals2.4
50Shot attempts60
29Faceoffs won35
3Power plays4
20Penalty minutes18
22Hits23
17Blocked shots14
14Giveaways17
4Takeaways3

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

EDM 2.4 xGCGY 2.4 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

EDMCGY

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.

Excitement 84/100 · #162 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.05 · 7 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
CGY 100%5050%50EDM 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +47 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 51% of the time.

EDM winsCGY wins

Simulated goal difference (EDM − CGY), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).