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Ice Lab

Sat, Oct 3, 2009·Honda Center, Anaheim

San Jose Sharks 4, Anaheim Ducks 1

Away

San Jose Sharks

4

Final

Home

Anaheim Ducks

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 86% of the time.

ANA winsSJS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
SJS31211708437
ANA0702116125

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 7:30SJSBenn FerrieroAssists: Jason Demers, Frazer McLaren · Backhand, 0.25 xG1–0
  2. P1 16:46SJSPatrick MarleauSHGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–0
  3. P1 18:23SJSJoe ThorntonAssists: Dany Heatley · Backhand, 0.14 xG3–0
  4. P2 4:32SJSDevin SetoguchiPPAssists: Dany Heatley, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–0
  5. P3 10:36ANARyan WhitneyPPAssists: Ryan Getzlaf · Slap, 0.04 xG4–1
Penalties (22)
  1. P1 1:59SJSKent Huskins: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 1:59ANAMike Brown: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 1:59SJSScott Nichol: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 2:47ANACorey Perry: Hooking2 min
  5. P1 2:58SJSJed Ortmeyer: Holding2 min
  6. P1 4:46ANATodd Marchant: Holding2 min
  7. P1 13:22SJSJason Demers: Holding2 min
  8. P1 16:13SJSDany Heatley: Tripping2 min
  9. P2 3:01ANARyan Whitney: Roughing2 min · PPG
  10. P2 8:04SJSManny Malhotra: Roughing2 min
  11. P2 8:04ANARyan Getzlaf: Roughing2 min
  12. P2 9:39ANAJoffrey Lupul: Roughing2 min
  13. P2 16:26SJSDany Heatley: Interference2 min
  14. P3 6:27ANAMike Brown: Fighting5 min
  15. P3 6:27SJSDouglas Murray: Game misconduct10 min
  16. P3 6:27SJSDan Boyle: Cross checking2 min
  17. P3 6:27SJSJody Shelley: Misconduct10 min
  18. P3 6:27SJSScott Nichol: Fighting5 min · PPG
  19. P3 6:27ANASheldon Brookbank: Misconduct10 min
  20. P3 10:18SJSPatrick Marleau: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  21. P3 11:12ANACorey Perry: Roughing2 min
  22. P3 16:14ANALuca Sbisa: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

SJS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ANA
43% to win57% to win
← SJS attackANA attack →
  1. P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Pavelski
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

SJSANA
37Shots on goal25
5.1Expected goals2.5
61Shot attempts50
27Faceoffs won22
6Power plays7
46Penalty minutes34
21Hits26
13Blocked shots9
5Giveaways8
6Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ANA 2.5 xGSJS 5.1 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ANASJS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 16/100 · #1034 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.73 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 42% (winner's lowest chance)
SJS 100%5050%50ANA 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 86% of the time.

ANA winsSJS wins

Simulated goal difference (ANA − SJS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).