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Ice Lab

Sat, Oct 17, 2009·HSBC Arena, Buffalo

Atlanta Thrashers 4, Buffalo Sabres 2

Away

Atlanta Thrashers

4

Final

Home

Buffalo Sabres

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 69% of the time.

BUF winsATL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
ATL2161714427
BUF01319120242

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:47ATLIlya KovalchukPPAssists: Nik Antropov, Rich Peverley · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
  2. P1 9:48ATLIlya KovalchukAssists: Bryan Little, Nik Antropov · Slap, 0.21 xG2–0
  3. P2 6:56BUFClarke MacArthurAssists: Tim Connolly, Jason Pominville · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
  4. P2 7:53ATLTodd WhitePPGWGAssists: Toby Enstrom, Vyacheslav Kozlov · Wrist, 0.55 xG3–1
  5. P3 16:26BUFDrew StaffordPPAssists: Tim Connolly, Chris Butler · Wrist, 0.32 xG3–2
  6. P3 16:43ATLMaxim AfinogenovAssists: Vyacheslav Kozlov, Johan Hedberg · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–2
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 5:25BUFTim Kennedy: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
  2. P1 12:17ATLZach Bogosian: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 17:14BUFHenrik Tallinder: Interference2 min
  4. P2 0:41BUFSteve Montador: Holding2 min
  5. P2 7:04BUFDerek Roy: Hooking2 min · PPG
  6. P2 11:18ATLZach Bogosian: Hooking2 min
  7. P2 11:18ATLRon Hainsey: Roughing2 min
  8. P3 9:50ATLChristoph Schubert: Boarding2 min
  9. P3 15:33ATLNik Antropov: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  10. P3 18:01BUFTim Connolly: Cross checking2 min
  11. P3 19:24ATLZach Bogosian: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ATL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0BUF
43% to win57% to win
← ATL attackBUF attack →
  1. P1 20:00Gaustad won the faceoff against Reasoner
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ATLBUF
27Shots on goal42
2.1Expected goals3.2
38Shot attempts62
31Faceoffs won31
5Power plays5
12Penalty minutes10
19Hits27
15Blocked shots6
17Giveaways14
6Takeaways2

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

BUF 3.2 xGATL 2.1 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

BUFATL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 44/100 · #690 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.16 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
ATL 100%5050%50BUF 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 69% of the time.

BUF winsATL wins

Simulated goal difference (BUF − ATL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).