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Ice Lab

Thu, Oct 22, 2009·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles

Dallas Stars 4, Los Angeles Kings 5 (OT)

Away

Dallas Stars

4

Final

Overtime

Home

Los Angeles Kings

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 55% of the time.

LAK winsDAL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
DAL16083700421
LAK2122801011531

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:54LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Dustin Brown, Ryan Smyth · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
  2. P1 15:37LAKWayne SimmondsAssists: Alex Frolov · Backhand, 0.21 xG0–2
  3. P1 16:16DALJames NealUnassisted · Snap, 0.04 xG1–2
  4. P2 7:17LAKAnze KopitarPPAssists: Dustin Brown, Drew Doughty · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–3
  5. P2 9:55LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Alex Frolov · Backhand, 0.05 xG1–4
  6. P3 6:58DALJamie BennUnassisted · Snap, 0.02 xG2–4
  7. P3 8:30DALMark FistricAssists: Brad Richards, Loui Eriksson · Slap, 0.02 xG3–4
  8. P3 17:14DALJames NealAssists: Loui Eriksson, Brad Richards · Snap, 0.03 xG4–4
  9. OT 0:55LAKMichal HandzusGWGUnassisted · Slap, 0.08 xG4–5
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 6:27LAKDrew Doughty: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 9:44DALJeff Woywitka: Holding2 min
  3. P1 14:19DALBrian Sutherby: Roughing2 min
  4. P1 14:19LAKMatt Greene: Roughing2 min
  5. P2 3:30LAKDavis Drewiske: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 4:28DALLoui Eriksson: Interference2 min
  7. P2 4:32LAKJack Johnson: Slashing2 min
  8. P2 6:18DALJames Neal: Hooking2 min · PPG
  9. P2 12:00LAKBrad Richardson: Interference2 min
  10. P2 19:57DALBrenden Morrow: Tripping2 min
  11. P3 12:15DALMark Fistric: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

DAL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0LAK
43% to win57% to win
← DAL attackLAK attack →
  1. P1 20:00Handzus won the faceoff against Ribeiro
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

DALLAK
21Shots on goal31
2.8Expected goals3.1
42Shot attempts56
22Faceoffs won30
4Power plays4
12Penalty minutes10
34Hits29
10Blocked shots9
5Giveaways12
3Takeaways3

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

LAK 3.1 xGDAL 2.8 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

LAKDAL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 95/100 · #47 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.98 · 9 goals in reach · 3-goal lead cutComeback index 50% (winner's lowest chance)
DAL 100%5050%50LAK 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +39 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 55% of the time.

LAK winsDAL wins

Simulated goal difference (LAK − DAL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).