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Ice Lab

Sat, Oct 24, 2009·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa

Buffalo Sabres 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 2 (SO)

Away

Buffalo Sabres

3

Final

Shootout

Home

Tampa Bay Lightning

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 55% of the time.

TBL winsBUF wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
BUF07113111011332
TBL1701016030226

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 19:59TBLVincent LecavalierAssists: James Wright, Martin St. Louis · Backhand, 0.24 xG0–1
  2. P2 19:14BUFMike GrierAssists: Tim Kennedy · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
  3. P3 4:26TBLSteven StamkosUnassisted · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG1–2
  4. P3 19:43BUFDrew StaffordAssists: Derek Roy, Craig Rivet · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2

Shootout

  1. 1. TBL Steven Stamkos stopped
  2. 2. BUF Drew Stafford stopped
  3. 3. TBL Ryan Malone stopped
  4. 4. BUF Jason Pominville stopped
  5. 5. TBL Alex Tanguay stopped
  6. 6. BUF Thomas Vanek stopped
  7. 7. TBL Vincent Lecavalier stopped
  8. 8. BUF Derek Roy stopped
  9. 9. TBL Mattias Ohlund stopped
  10. 10. BUF Tim Connolly stopped
  11. 11. TBL Martin St. Louis stopped
  12. 12. BUF Tyler Myers scored
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 6:04TBLKurtis Foster: Holding2 min
  2. P1 6:04BUFPatrick Kaleta: Diving2 min
  3. P1 7:57BUFTyler Myers: Holding2 min
  4. P2 1:38TBLSteven Stamkos: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 5:40BUFThomas Vanek: Holding the stick2 min
  6. P2 10:29TBLAndrej Meszaros: Hooking2 min
  7. P3 14:45TBLMattias Ohlund: Cross checking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BUF00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TBL
43% to win57% to win
← BUF attackTBL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Konopka won the faceoff against Kennedy
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BUFTBL
32Shots on goal26
2.0Expected goals2.2
57Shot attempts46
33Faceoffs won29
3Power plays2
6Penalty minutes8
17Hits20
8Blocked shots17
7Giveaways8
5Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TBL 2.2 xGBUF 2.0 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TBLBUF

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.

Excitement 77/100 · #255 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.07 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 3% (winner's lowest chance)
BUF 100%5050%50TBL 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +46 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 55% of the time.

TBL winsBUF wins

Simulated goal difference (TBL − BUF), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).