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Ice Lab

Wed, Oct 28, 2009·Pengrowth Saddledome, Calgary

Colorado Avalanche 3, Calgary Flames 2

Away

Colorado Avalanche

3

Final

Home

Calgary Flames

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 80% of the time.

CGY winsCOL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
COL260414314
CGY28012012232

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 0:55CGYJarome IginlaAssists: Craig Conroy, Curtis Glencross · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
  2. P1 1:10CGYOlli JokinenAssists: David Moss, Robyn Regehr · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
  3. P1 7:53COLDavid KociAssists: Brett Clark, Ryan Wilson · Deflected, 0.11 xG1–2
  4. P1 16:38COLDavid JonesAssists: Chris Stewart, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–2
  5. P3 5:31COLWojtek WolskiGWGAssists: Paul Stastny, Scott Hannan · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
  1. P2 3:02COLChris Durno: High sticking2 min
  2. P2 11:48CGYAdam Pardy: Tripping2 min
  3. P2 18:02COLRyan O'Reilly: Boarding2 min
  4. P3 1:58CGYRene Bourque: Hooking2 min
  5. P3 11:58COLMarek Svatos: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

COL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CGY
43% to win57% to win
← COL attackCGY attack →
  1. P1 20:00Langkow won the faceoff against Stastny
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

COLCGY
14Shots on goal32
0.9Expected goals2.4
30Shot attempts67
27Faceoffs won29
2Power plays3
6Penalty minutes4
8Hits20
19Blocked shots13
10Giveaways8
5Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CGY 2.4 xGCOL 0.9 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CGYCOL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 63/100 · #444 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.40 · 5 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 18% (winner's lowest chance)
COL 100%5050%50CGY 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +28 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 80% of the time.

CGY winsCOL wins

Simulated goal difference (CGY − COL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).