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Ice Lab

Sat, Oct 31, 2009·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa

Atlanta Thrashers 3, Ottawa Senators 1

Away

Atlanta Thrashers

3

Final

Home

Ottawa Senators

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 85% of the time.

OTT winsATL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
ATL1131513321
OTT08018125151

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 12:13ATLZach BogosianAssists: Marty Reasoner · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
  2. P2 11:51ATLRich PeverleyGWGAssists: Nik Antropov, Christoph Schubert · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–0
  3. P3 15:33OTTMike FisherPPAssists: Milan Michalek, Daniel Alfredsson · Wrist, 0.43 xG2–1
  4. P3 18:29ATLMaxim AfinogenovAssists: Rich Peverley, Nik Antropov · Backhand, 0.15 xG3–1
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 2:05OTTRyan Shannon: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 3:47ATLChristoph Schubert: Tripping2 min
  3. P2 0:00ATLRich Peverley: Hooking2 min
  4. P3 1:28OTTDaniel Alfredsson: Hooking2 min
  5. P3 13:56ATLMaxim Afinogenov: Interference2 min · PPG
  6. P3 14:25ATLPavel Kubina: Delaying game2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ATL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0OTT
43% to win57% to win
← ATL attackOTT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Slater won the faceoff against Kelly
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ATLOTT
21Shots on goal51
1.7Expected goals3.9
42Shot attempts79
41Faceoffs won23
2Power plays4
8Penalty minutes4
19Hits31
16Blocked shots12
7Giveaways11
7Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

OTT 3.9 xGATL 1.7 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

OTTATL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 17/100 · #1015 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.87 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
ATL 100%5050%50OTT 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +17 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 85% of the time.

OTT winsATL wins

Simulated goal difference (OTT − ATL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).