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Ice Lab

Thu, Nov 5, 2009·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa

Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Ottawa Senators 3 (OT)

Away

Tampa Bay Lightning

2

Final

Overtime

Home

Ottawa Senators

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 69% of the time.

OTT winsTBL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
TBL17160700220
OTT114160613329

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:03TBLAlex TanguayPPAssists: Jeff Halpern, Steve Downie · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–0
  2. P1 5:02OTTDaniel AlfredssonAssists: Jason Spezza, Milan Michalek · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–1
  3. P2 12:00OTTMike FisherPPAssists: Alex Kovalev, Jason Spezza · Tip-in, 0.19 xG1–2
  4. P2 13:40TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Martin St. Louis, Vincent Lecavalier · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
  5. OT 4:17OTTJason SpezzaPPGWGAssists: Filip Kuba, Mike Fisher · Slap, 0.05 xG2–3
Penalties (18)
  1. P1 1:34OTTChris Neil: Interference2 min · PPG
  2. P1 8:31TBLSteven Stamkos: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 9:45OTTNick Foligno: Hooking2 min
  4. P1 14:33OTTJason Spezza: Slashing2 min
  5. P1 17:27TBLMatt Walker: Tripping2 min
  6. P2 6:55OTTChris Neil: Tripping2 min
  7. P2 11:06TBLMattias Ohlund: Interference2 min · PPG
  8. P2 13:23OTTJonathan Cheechoo: Interference2 min · PPG
  9. P2 14:12OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min
  10. P2 14:12TBLSteve Downie: Instigator2 min
  11. P2 14:12TBLSteve Downie: Fighting5 min
  12. P2 14:12TBLSteve Downie: Instigator misconduct10 min
  13. P2 0:00TBLRyan Craig: Fighting5 min
  14. P2 0:00OTTMatt Carkner: Fighting5 min
  15. P3 1:36OTTChris Campoli: Tripping2 min
  16. P3 9:15OTTFilip Kuba: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  17. P3 15:51TBLAndrej Meszaros: Roughing2 min
  18. OT 3:00TBLMattias Ohlund: Holding2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

TBL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0OTT
43% to win57% to win
← TBL attackOTT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Lecavalier won the faceoff against Fisher
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

TBLOTT
20Shots on goal29
2.0Expected goals3.1
43Shot attempts61
30Faceoffs won31
7Power plays6
32Penalty minutes24
23Hits19
18Blocked shots14
8Giveaways9
7Takeaways17

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

OTT 3.1 xGTBL 2.0 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

OTTTBL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 68/100 · #381 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.92 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 41% (winner's lowest chance)
TBL 100%5050%50OTT 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +21 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 69% of the time.

OTT winsTBL wins

Simulated goal difference (OTT − TBL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).