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Ice Lab

Thu, Nov 5, 2009·Honda Center, Anaheim

Nashville Predators 0, Anaheim Ducks 4

Away

Nashville Predators

0

Final

Home

Anaheim Ducks

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 58% of the time.

ANA winsNSH wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NSH013011016040
ANA11407310431

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 15:32ANATeemu SelannePPGWGAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Saku Koivu · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
  2. P3 8:05ANATeemu SelanneAssists: Saku Koivu · Slap, 0.14 xG0–2
  3. P3 9:51ANATodd MarchantAssists: Petteri Nokelainen · Slap, 0.13 xG0–3
  4. P3 17:40ANABobby RyanAssists: Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–4
Penalties (14)
  1. P1 6:15ANANick Boynton: Cross checking2 min
  2. P1 13:28NSHJordin Tootoo: Slashing2 min
  3. P1 15:06NSHKevin Klein: Hooking2 min · PPG
  4. P2 6:19NSHMike Santorelli: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 8:40ANATeemu Selanne: Holding2 min
  6. P2 10:59NSHJordin Tootoo: Too many men on the ice2 min
  7. P2 13:30ANATodd Marchant: Slashing2 min
  8. P2 15:49ANAGeorge Parros: Fighting5 min
  9. P2 15:49NSHWade Belak: Fighting5 min
  10. P2 17:29ANACorey Perry: Tripping2 min
  11. P2 19:59ANARyan Whitney: Roughing2 min
  12. P3 7:52NSHJoel Ward: Tripping2 min
  13. P3 7:52ANABobby Ryan: Diving2 min
  14. P3 11:06NSHJerred Smithson: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NSH00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ANA
43% to win57% to win
← NSH attackANA attack →
  1. Press play, or drag along the timeline.
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NSHANA
40Shots on goal31
2.5Expected goals2.9
69Shot attempts42
31Faceoffs won35
5Power plays5
17Penalty minutes17
16Hits12
6Blocked shots11
8Giveaways11
6Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ANA 2.9 xGNSH 2.5 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ANANSH

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.

Excitement 10/100 · #1102 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.78 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 54% (winner's lowest chance)
NSH 100%5050%50ANA 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +17 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 58% of the time.

ANA winsNSH wins

Simulated goal difference (ANA − NSH), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).