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Ice Lab

Sat, Nov 7, 2009·Air Canada Centre, Toronto

Detroit Red Wings 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 5

Away

Detroit Red Wings

1

Final

Home

Toronto Maple Leafs

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 70% of the time.

TOR winsDET wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
DET013010113136
TOR2111829528

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 10:34TORWayne PrimeauAssists: Colton Orr, Jeff Finger · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
  2. P1 19:34TORPhil KesselGWGAssists: Jason Blake, Ian White · Snap, 0.24 xG0–2
  3. P2 5:21TORJeff FingerAssists: Lee Stempniak, Matt Stajan · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–3
  4. P3 5:59DETDaniel ClearyAssists: Brian Rafalski, Nicklas Lidstrom · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–3
  5. P3 9:22TORJohn MitchellPPAssists: Phil Kessel, Francois Beauchemin · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–4
  6. P3 12:44TORAlexei PonikarovskyAssists: Mikhail Grabovski, Ian White · Backhand, 0.03 xG1–5
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 15:28DETTodd Bertuzzi: Holding2 min
  2. P2 1:04TORAlexei Ponikarovsky: Holding the stick2 min
  3. P2 3:21TORJason Blake: Too many men on the ice2 min
  4. P2 11:03DETKris Draper: Interference2 min
  5. P2 18:31TORMikhail Grabovski: High sticking2 min
  6. P3 0:18TORLuke Schenn: Interference2 min
  7. P3 7:52DETTomas Holmstrom: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
  8. P3 10:22DETBrett Lebda: Holding2 min
  9. P3 13:44TORJohn Mitchell: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

DET00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TOR
43% to win57% to win
← DET attackTOR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Helm won the faceoff against Mitchell
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

DETTOR
36Shots on goal28
3.4Expected goals2.3
75Shot attempts58
25Faceoffs won25
5Power plays4
8Penalty minutes10
25Hits14
17Blocked shots18
8Giveaways11
11Takeaways13

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TOR 2.3 xGDET 3.4 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TORDET

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.

Excitement 22/100 · #939 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.62 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
DET 100%5050%50TOR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 70% of the time.

TOR winsDET wins

Simulated goal difference (TOR − DET), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).