Sat, Nov 7, 2009·Verizon Center, Washington
Florida Panthers 4, Washington Capitals 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 011 | 312 | 15 | 428 |
| WSH | 17 | 19 | 516 | 732 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:12WSHMike KnubleAssists: Brendan Morrison, Brooks Laich · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 1:35FLAMichael FrolikAssists: Bryan McCabe, Stephen Weiss · Wrist, 0.42 xG1–1
- P2 6:17WSHBrooks LaichPPAssists: Chris Clark, Eric Fehr · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 10:24FLADmitry KulikovAssists: Bryan Allen, Victor Oreskovich · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
- P2 16:03FLAMichal RepikAssists: Kenndal McArdle · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 2:21WSHMathieu PerreaultUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–3
- P3 3:01WSHQuintin LaingAssists: Matt Bradley, Tom Poti · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–4
- P3 5:09FLACory StillmanAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Steve Reinprecht · Tip-in, 0.11 xG4–4
- P3 7:22WSHTomas FleischmannGWGAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Mike Knuble · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–5
- P3 11:06WSHMike KnubleAssists: Shaone Morrisonn, Nicklas Backstrom · Tip-in, 0.06 xG4–6
- P3 13:38WSHTomas FleischmannAssists: Mike Knuble, Brian Pothier · Snap, 0.07 xG4–7
Penalties (10)
- P1 13:33WSHChris Clark: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 18:14WSHMatt Bradley: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:14FLAKenndal McArdle: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:14FLABryan McCabe: Boarding2 min
- P1 18:32WSHAlexander Semin: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:11WSHAlexander Semin: Cross checking2 min
- P2 1:11FLAKeith Ballard: Holding2 min
- P2 4:28FLABryan Allen: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:32FLAJeff Taffe: Boarding2 min
- P3 16:11FLAKeith Ballard: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Weiss won the faceoff against Morrison
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).