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Ice Lab

Sat, Nov 14, 2009·Wachovia Center, Philadelphia

Buffalo Sabres 3, Philadelphia Flyers 2

Away

Buffalo Sabres

3

Final

Home

Philadelphia Flyers

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 62% of the time.

PHI winsBUF wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
BUF1121815325
PHI0808215231

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:11BUFThomas VanekPPAssists: Clarke MacArthur, Derek Roy · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
  2. P2 14:50BUFTyler EnnisAssists: Tim Kennedy, Patrick Kaleta · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
  3. P3 2:43PHIChris ProngerAssists: Jeff Carter, Daniel Brière · Snap, 0.03 xG2–1
  4. P3 6:25BUFPaul GaustadPPGWGAssists: Tyler Myers, Adam Mair · Tip-in, 0.18 xG3–1
  5. P3 10:21PHIJeff CarterSHAssists: Mike Richards, Kimmo Timonen · Wrist, 0.37 xG3–2
Penalties (15)
  1. P1 1:28PHIDaniel Carcillo: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  2. P1 9:37BUFThomas Vanek: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 12:34PHIRyan Parent: Slashing2 min
  4. P1 17:21PHIBraydon Coburn: Interference2 min
  5. P1 18:03PHIChris Pronger: Roughing2 min
  6. P1 18:03BUFPaul Gaustad: Roughing2 min
  7. P2 0:36PHIDarroll Powe: Hooking2 min
  8. P2 7:03PHIJeff Carter: Slashing2 min
  9. P2 7:57BUFChris Butler: Slashing2 min
  10. P3 4:04BUFThomas Vanek: Slashing2 min
  11. P3 4:29BUFChris Butler: Cross checking2 min
  12. P3 4:29PHIDaniel Brière: High sticking2 min · PPG
  13. P3 4:29PHIDaniel Brière: High sticking2 min
  14. P3 9:20PHIChris Pronger: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  15. P3 14:12BUFJochen Hecht: High sticking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BUF00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PHI
43% to win57% to win
← BUF attackPHI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Roy
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BUFPHI
25Shots on goal31
3.1Expected goals3.9
48Shot attempts68
21Faceoffs won36
7Power plays4
12Penalty minutes18
10Hits24
16Blocked shots14
10Giveaways12
8Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PHI 3.9 xGBUF 3.1 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PHIBUF

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.

Excitement 42/100 · #713 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.39 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
BUF 100%5050%50PHI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 62% of the time.

PHI winsBUF wins

Simulated goal difference (PHI − BUF), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).