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Ice Lab

Thu, Nov 19, 2009·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa

Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Ottawa Senators 6

Away

Pittsburgh Penguins

2

Final

Home

Ottawa Senators

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 80% of the time.

OTT winsPIT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PIT14011112227
OTT1917415631

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:09PITJordan StaalAssists: Pascal Dupuis, Bill Guerin · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–0
  2. P1 12:16OTTMatt CarknerAssists: Nick Foligno, Mike Fisher · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
  3. P2 2:31OTTMilan MichalekPPAssists: Daniel Alfredsson, Alexandre Picard · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–2
  4. P3 1:29OTTChris KellyGWGAssists: Mike Fisher, Alexandre Picard · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
  5. P3 5:09OTTChris PhillipsAssists: Mike Fisher, Nick Foligno · Slap, 0.02 xG1–4
  6. P3 7:12OTTChris PhillipsAssists: Filip Kuba, Chris Kelly · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–5
  7. P3 13:06OTTJonathan CheechooUnassisted · Wrist, 0.41 xG1–6
  8. P3 17:19PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Matt Cooke · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–6
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 1:48PITMax Talbot: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 19:45OTTMatt Carkner: Hooking2 min
  3. P2 0:59PITBill Guerin: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
  4. P2 5:23OTTNick Foligno: Too many men on the ice2 min
  5. P2 11:24OTTChris Phillips: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 19:21OTTChris Kelly: Tripping2 min
  7. P3 15:37OTTAlexandre Picard: Slashing2 min · PPG
  8. P3 18:09OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min
  9. P3 18:09PITEric Godard: Fighting5 min
  10. P3 18:09PITEric Godard: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PIT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0OTT
43% to win57% to win
← PIT attackOTT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Crosby
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PITOTT
27Shots on goal31
2.0Expected goals3.9
64Shot attempts60
27Faceoffs won29
5Power plays3
11Penalty minutes15
34Hits20
11Blocked shots22
11Giveaways9
7Takeaways20

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

OTT 3.9 xGPIT 2.0 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

OTTPIT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 42/100 · #706 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.97 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 39% (winner's lowest chance)
PIT 100%5050%50OTT 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +18 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 80% of the time.

OTT winsPIT wins

Simulated goal difference (OTT − PIT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).