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Ice Lab

Thu, Nov 19, 2009·Sommet Center, Nashville

New Jersey Devils 2, Nashville Predators 3 (SO)

Away

New Jersey Devils

2

Final

Shootout

Home

Nashville Predators

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 52% of the time.

NSH winsNJD wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
NJD1701216031228
NSH1606112042328

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 4:44NSHJason ArnottAssists: J-P Dumont, Steve Sullivan · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
  2. P1 8:35NJDZach PariseAssists: Colin White, Travis Zajac · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
  3. P3 1:09NSHJason ArnottPPAssists: J-P Dumont, Ryan Suter · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–2
  4. P3 4:39NJDZach PariseAssists: Dean McAmmond, Patrik Elias · Tip-in, 0.19 xG2–2

Shootout

  1. 1. NJD Zach Parise stopped
  2. 2. NSH Mike Santorelli scored
  3. 3. NJD Jamie Langenbrunner stopped
  4. 4. NSH David Legwand stopped
  5. 5. NJD Travis Zajac scored
  6. 6. NSH Martin Erat scored
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 6:14NSHMike Santorelli: Holding2 min
  2. P1 15:57NSHMartin Erat: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 19:37NSHJordin Tootoo: Diving2 min
  4. P1 19:37NJDPatrik Elias: Interference2 min
  5. P2 2:46NJDDavid Clarkson: Holding2 min
  6. P2 19:49NJDTyler Eckford: Hooking2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NJD00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NSH
43% to win57% to win
← NJD attackNSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Legwand
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NJDNSH
28Shots on goal28
2.2Expected goals2.2
47Shot attempts62
23Faceoffs won31
2Power plays2
6Penalty minutes6
11Hits20
16Blocked shots11
10Giveaways12
8Takeaways10

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NSH 2.2 xGNJD 2.2 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NSHNJD

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.

Excitement 48/100 · #634 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.54 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 50% (winner's lowest chance)
NJD 100%5050%50NSH 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +26 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 52% of the time.

NSH winsNJD wins

Simulated goal difference (NSH − NJD), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).