Mon, Nov 23, 2009·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Florida Panthers 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 011 | 012 | 216 | 03 | 342 |
| FLA | 111 | 17 | 03 | 00 | 221 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:33FLANathan HortonAssists: Stephen Weiss, Michael Frolik · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 10:21FLAKeith BallardAssists: Michael Frolik, Nathan Horton · Snap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P3 4:49PITPascal DupuisAssists: Brooks Orpik, Deryk Engelland · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–2
- P3 17:28PITMike RuppAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Craig Adams · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:00PITSidney Crosby: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 5:21PITMike Rupp: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:21FLABryan Allen: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:12PITSidney Crosby: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:17PITChris Bourque: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:17FLAMichael Frolik: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:21PITBen Lovejoy: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:21FLABryan McCabe: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 1:50FLAShawn Matthias: Interference2 min
- OT 1:25FLANathan Horton: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Weiss
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).