Wed, Nov 25, 2009·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 213 | 211 | 011 | 435 |
| TBL | 214 | 111 | 06 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:45TORNikolay KuleminAssists: Carl Gunnarsson, Wayne Primeau · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 11:54TORNiklas HagmanAssists: Francois Beauchemin, Carl Gunnarsson · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–0
- P1 14:14TBLAndrej MeszarosPPAssists: Steve Downie, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P1 14:44TBLVincent LecavalierAssists: Jeff Halpern, Alex Tanguay · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–2
- P2 1:20TORNiklas HagmanAssists: Mikhail Grabovski, Garnet Exelby · Wrist, 0.33 xG3–2
- P2 7:51TBLRyan MaloneAssists: Steven Stamkos, Martin St. Louis · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–3
- P2 18:13TORMatt StajanGWGAssists: Carl Gunnarsson · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:00TBLSteve Downie: Charging2 min
- P1 13:28TORIan White: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 15:04TORChristian Hanson: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:43TBLVictor Hedman: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:57TBLAlex Tanguay: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:21TORNikolay Kulemin: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stajan won the faceoff against Szczechura
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).