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Ice Lab

Thu, Nov 26, 2009·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa

Columbus Blue Jackets 1, Ottawa Senators 2

Away

Columbus Blue Jackets

1

Final

Home

Ottawa Senators

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 64% of the time.

OTT winsCBJ wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CBJ11301406133
OTT11101619236

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 17:41CBJKristian HuseliusPPAssists: R.J. Umberger, Fedor Tyutin · Wrist, 0.37 xG1–0
  2. P1 18:34OTTJason SpezzaAssists: Jesse Winchester, Alex Kovalev · Slap, 0.06 xG1–1
  3. P3 13:50OTTNick FolignoPPGWGAssists: Jesse Winchester, Chris Campoli · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–2
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 7:51OTTFilip Kuba: Holding2 min
  2. P1 17:31OTTDaniel Alfredsson: High sticking2 min · PPG
  3. P2 3:54OTTBrian Lee: Interference2 min
  4. P2 9:21CBJJan Hejda: Interference2 min
  5. P2 12:26OTTFilip Kuba: High sticking2 min
  6. P2 17:20OTTChris Kelly: Holding2 min
  7. P2 19:46CBJKristian Huselius: High sticking2 min
  8. P3 3:42OTTJason Spezza: Hooking2 min
  9. P3 9:06CBJMike Blunden: Boarding2 min
  10. P3 12:28CBJJan Hejda: Hooking2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CBJ00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0OTT
43% to win57% to win
← CBJ attackOTT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Vermette
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CBJOTT
33Shots on goal36
2.4Expected goals3.3
58Shot attempts59
23Faceoffs won27
6Power plays4
8Penalty minutes12
22Hits25
11Blocked shots17
10Giveaways6
6Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

OTT 3.3 xGCBJ 2.4 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

OTTCBJ

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.

Excitement 44/100 · #681 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.43 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 37% (winner's lowest chance)
CBJ 100%5050%50OTT 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +31 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 64% of the time.

OTT winsCBJ wins

Simulated goal difference (OTT − CBJ), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).