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Ice Lab

Fri, Nov 27, 2009·RBC Center, Raleigh

Atlanta Thrashers 6, Carolina Hurricanes 4

Away

Atlanta Thrashers

6

Final

Home

Carolina Hurricanes

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 68% of the time.

CAR winsATL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
ATL09111514634
CAR11531209436

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 8:11CARErik ColeAssists: Tim Gleason, Eric Staal · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–1
  2. P2 2:18CARStephane YelleAssists: Rod Brind'Amour, Tim Gleason · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG0–2
  3. P2 10:31ATLEvander KaneAssists: Toby Enstrom, Colby Armstrong · Tip-in, 0.21 xG1–2
  4. P2 13:45CARSergei SamsonovAssists: Erik Cole · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–3
  5. P2 18:25CARMatt CullenSHAssists: Tom Kostopoulos, Aaron Ward · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–4
  6. P3 6:21ATLVyacheslav KozlovAssists: Bryan Little, Anssi Salmela · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–4
  7. P3 7:09ATLIlya KovalchukAssists: Toby Enstrom, Maxim Afinogenov · Snap, 0.05 xG3–4
  8. P3 9:00ATLMaxim AfinogenovAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Toby Enstrom · Backhand, 0.18 xG4–4
  9. P3 13:57ATLRich PeverleyGWGAssists: Bryan Little, Zach Bogosian · Snap, 0.05 xG5–4
  10. P3 18:57ATLMarty ReasonerENAssists: Todd White, Pavel Kubina · Wrist, 0.55 xG6–4
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 9:38ATLChris Thorburn: Cross checking2 min
  2. P1 18:37ATLJim Slater: Tripping2 min
  3. P2 2:56ATLEvander Kane: Slashing2 min
  4. P2 11:01CARRod Brind'Amour: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 16:31CARJoni Pitkanen: Cross checking2 min
  6. P2 19:44ATLVyacheslav Kozlov: Tripping2 min
  7. P3 3:01ATLChristoph Schubert: High sticking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ATL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CAR
43% to win57% to win
← ATL attackCAR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Peverley won the faceoff against Cullen
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ATLCAR
34Shots on goal36
3.1Expected goals4.3
56Shot attempts70
44Faceoffs won38
2Power plays5
10Penalty minutes4
29Hits14
21Blocked shots12
4Giveaways3
7Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CAR 4.3 xGATL 3.1 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CARATL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 95/100 · #48 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.82 · 10 goals in reach · 3-goal lead cutComeback index 2% (winner's lowest chance)
ATL 100%5050%50CAR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +36 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 68% of the time.

CAR winsATL wins

Simulated goal difference (CAR − ATL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).