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Ice Lab

Fri, Nov 27, 2009·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit

Calgary Flames 3, Detroit Red Wings 0

Away

Calgary Flames

3

Final

Home

Detroit Red Wings

0

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 74% of the time.

DET winsCGY wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CGY260516317
DET01501708040

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 0:28CGYJamie LundmarkGWGAssists: Olli Jokinen, Jarome Iginla · Snap, 0.19 xG1–0
  2. P1 18:29CGYNigel DawesAssists: David Moss · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–0
  3. P3 0:25CGYOlli JokinenAssists: Jamie Lundmark, Jarome Iginla · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–0
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 4:27CGYCurtis Glencross: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 5:53DETTomas Holmstrom: Cross checking2 min
  3. P1 12:52CGYFredrik Sjostrom: Holding2 min
  4. P1 15:02CGYDaymond Langkow: Roughing2 min
  5. P2 11:54CGYJarome Iginla: High sticking2 min
  6. P2 15:55CGYCurtis Glencross: Slashing2 min
  7. P3 3:40DETTodd Bertuzzi: Interference2 min
  8. P3 4:01CGYOlli Jokinen: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CGY00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0DET
43% to win57% to win
← CGY attackDET attack →
  1. P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Jokinen
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CGYDET
17Shots on goal40
1.4Expected goals2.7
31Shot attempts75
30Faceoffs won38
2Power plays6
12Penalty minutes4
30Hits38
17Blocked shots7
5Giveaways11
7Takeaways3

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

DET 2.7 xGCGY 1.4 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

DETCGY

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.

Excitement 8/100 · #1137 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.69 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
CGY 100%5050%50DET 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 74% of the time.

DET winsCGY wins

Simulated goal difference (DET − CGY), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).