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Ice Lab

Sat, Nov 28, 2009·Sommet Center, Nashville

Florida Panthers 1, Nashville Predators 4

Away

Florida Panthers

1

Final

Home

Nashville Predators

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 90% of the time.

NSH winsFLA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
FLA0611305124
NSH11106311428

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 18:28NSHDan HamhuisUnassisted · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–1
  2. P2 15:14FLAJordan LeopoldAssists: Stephen Weiss, Nathan Horton · Slap, 0.08 xG1–1
  3. P3 1:08NSHJ-P DumontGWGAssists: Steve Sullivan, Jason Arnott · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–2
  4. P3 5:16NSHDavid LegwandAssists: Jordin Tootoo, Dan Hamhuis · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–3
  5. P3 19:23NSHJoel WardENAssists: Kevin Klein · Wrist, 0.43 xG1–4
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 6:26FLADennis Seidenberg: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  2. P1 12:16FLAVictor Oreskovich: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  3. P1 15:44FLADmitry Kulikov: Boarding2 min
  4. P2 0:02NSHJordin Tootoo: Fighting5 min
  5. P2 0:02FLAKenndal McArdle: Fighting5 min
  6. P2 1:16NSHDan Hamhuis: Holding2 min
  7. P2 8:00NSHJordin Tootoo: Fighting5 min
  8. P2 8:00FLAKenndal McArdle: Fighting5 min
  9. P2 11:36NSHJ-P Dumont: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  10. P2 16:40NSHMike Santorelli: Hooking2 min
  11. P3 1:54FLADmitry Kulikov: Tripping2 min
  12. P3 6:18NSHSteve Sullivan: Hooking2 min
  13. P3 17:18NSHMartin Erat: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

FLA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NSH
43% to win57% to win
← FLA attackNSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Weiss won the faceoff against Legwand
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

FLANSH
24Shots on goal28
1.5Expected goals4.2
49Shot attempts65
30Faceoffs won33
5Power plays4
18Penalty minutes20
18Hits19
23Blocked shots13
13Giveaways15
9Takeaways18

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NSH 4.2 xGFLA 1.5 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NSHFLA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 37/100 · #784 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.23 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 51% (winner's lowest chance)
FLA 100%5050%50NSH 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +24 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 90% of the time.

NSH winsFLA wins

Simulated goal difference (NSH − FLA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).