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Ice Lab

Wed, Dec 2, 2009·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul

Nashville Predators 4, Minnesota Wild 5 (OT)

Away

Nashville Predators

4

Final

Overtime

Home

Minnesota Wild

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 52% of the time.

MIN winsNSH wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
NSH2161811100435
MIN3110311013527

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 7:20NSHMarcel GocAssists: Martin Erat, Steve Sullivan · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
  2. P1 10:31MINAntti MiettinenAssists: Andrew Brunette, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
  3. P1 14:42MINCal ClutterbuckAssists: Kyle Brodziak, Martin Havlat · Snap, 0.09 xG1–2
  4. P1 16:52NSHJason ArnottAssists: J-P Dumont, Steve Sullivan · Slap, 0.22 xG2–2
  5. P1 17:28MINGuillaume LatendresseAssists: Kyle Brodziak · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
  6. P2 8:27NSHSteve SullivanAssists: Kevin Klein, Jason Arnott · Wrist, 0.42 xG3–3
  7. P3 3:42NSHJason ArnottAssists: J-P Dumont, Steve Sullivan · Slap, 0.03 xG4–3
  8. P3 13:02MINMikko KoivuPPAssists: Andrew Brunette, Marek Zidlicky · Snap, 0.10 xG4–4
  9. OT 1:26MINAndrew EbbettGWGAssists: Guillaume Latendresse, Greg Zanon · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–5
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 11:53MINDerek Boogaard: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 11:53NSHWade Belak: Fighting5 min
  3. P2 9:26MINChuck Kobasew: Cross checking2 min
  4. P2 13:05NSHMartin Erat: Roughing2 min
  5. P3 12:52NSHFrancis Bouillon: Tripping2 min · PPG
  6. P3 17:40MINMikko Koivu: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NSH00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0MIN
43% to win57% to win
← NSH attackMIN attack →
  1. P1 20:00Goc won the faceoff against Brodziak
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NSHMIN
35Shots on goal27
2.0Expected goals2.2
54Shot attempts52
23Faceoffs won35
2Power plays2
9Penalty minutes9
16Hits23
11Blocked shots9
6Giveaways4
4Takeaways11

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

MIN 2.2 xGNSH 2.0 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

MINNSH

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.

Excitement 96/100 · #38 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.56 · 9 goals in reachComeback index 17% (winner's lowest chance)
NSH 100%5050%50MIN 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +31 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 52% of the time.

MIN winsNSH wins

Simulated goal difference (MIN − NSH), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).