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Ice Lab

Thu, Dec 3, 2009·Verizon Center, Washington

Florida Panthers 2, Washington Capitals 6

Away

Florida Panthers

2

Final

Home

Washington Capitals

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 87% of the time.

WSH winsFLA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
FLA0601329228
WSH218213213644

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 10:34WSHAlexander SeminAssists: Brooks Laich · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
  2. P1 11:50WSHTomas FleischmannAssists: Eric Fehr, Brendan Morrison · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
  3. P2 2:45WSHMatt BradleySHGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.05 xG0–3
  4. P2 5:13WSHNicklas BackstromPPAssists: Alexander Semin, Brendan Morrison · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–4
  5. P3 3:19WSHBrendan MorrisonPPAssists: Alexander Semin, Mike Green · Slap, 0.14 xG0–5
  6. P3 6:32WSHAlexander SeminPPAssists: Chris Clark, Brooks Laich · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–6
  7. P3 16:38FLAStephen WeissAssists: Bryan McCabe · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–6
  8. P3 17:21FLAJeff TaffeAssists: Bryan Allen, Dominic Moore · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–6
Penalties (18)
  1. P1 13:20FLABryan Allen: Slashing2 min
  2. P1 15:21FLABryan McCabe: Slashing2 min
  3. P2 1:41WSHJohn Erskine: Holding the stick2 min
  4. P2 3:27FLADmitry Kulikov: Hooking2 min · PPG
  5. P2 5:02FLAGregory Campbell: High sticking2 min
  6. P2 10:21FLAStephen Weiss: Hooking2 min
  7. P2 12:21WSHBrendan Morrison: Hooking2 min
  8. P2 16:39WSHKarl Alzner: High sticking2 min
  9. P3 2:14FLAMike Duco: Instigator2 min · PPG
  10. P3 2:14FLAMike Duco: Fighting5 min · PPG
  11. P3 2:14FLAMike Duco: Misconduct10 min
  12. P3 2:14FLAMike Duco: Aggressor10 min
  13. P3 3:04FLABryan Allen: Elbowing2 min
  14. P3 4:24WSHChris Clark: Hooking2 min
  15. P3 9:38FLABryan Allen: Boarding2 min
  16. P3 9:48WSHTyler Sloan: Cross checking2 min
  17. P3 13:52FLAGregory Campbell: Slashing2 min
  18. P3 17:45WSHBrian Pothier: High sticking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

FLA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0WSH
43% to win57% to win
← FLA attackWSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Taffe
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

FLAWSH
28Shots on goal44
2.6Expected goals5.6
50Shot attempts84
27Faceoffs won29
5Power plays12
43Penalty minutes12
12Hits17
21Blocked shots12
9Giveaways10
6Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

WSH 5.6 xGFLA 2.6 xG
0123456P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

WSHFLA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 60/100 · #504 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.50 · 5 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
FLA 100%5050%50WSH 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 87% of the time.

WSH winsFLA wins

Simulated goal difference (WSH − FLA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).