Sat, Dec 5, 2009·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa
New York Islanders 0, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 07 | 09 | 014 | 030 |
| TBL | 27 | 012 | 26 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:35TBLRyan MaloneGWGAssists: Andrej Meszaros, Martin St. Louis · Wrist, 0.32 xG0–1
- P1 19:08TBLSteve DowniePPAssists: Andrej Meszaros, Martin St. Louis · Wrist, 0.38 xG0–2
- P3 2:58TBLJeff HalpernPPAssists: Kurtis Foster, Vincent Lecavalier · Tip-in, 0.16 xG0–3
- P3 10:31TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Alex Tanguay · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–4
Penalties (13)
- P1 15:02TBLKurtis Foster: Interference2 min
- P1 15:41TBLAndrej Meszaros: Boarding2 min
- P1 18:26NYIBrendan Witt: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 0:05NYITim Jackman: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:05TBLDavid Hale: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:38NYIBrendan Witt: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:50TBLMatt Walker: Holding2 min
- P2 15:30TBLSteve Downie: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:30NYIAndrew MacDonald: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:30TBLSteve Downie: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:54TBLKurtis Foster: Elbowing2 min
- P3 2:44NYIRichard Park: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 13:00TBLVictor Hedman: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lecavalier won the faceoff against Park
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).