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Ice Lab

Wed, Dec 9, 2009·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa

Edmonton Oilers 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 2

Away

Edmonton Oilers

3

Final

Home

Tampa Bay Lightning

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 73% of the time.

TBL winsEDM wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
EDM11121308332
TBL11019015234

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:08TBLMartin St. LouisAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Ryan Malone · Slap, 0.20 xG0–1
  2. P1 11:21EDMTom GilbertAssists: Robert Nilsson, Zack Stortini · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
  3. P2 6:31EDMDustin PennerAssists: Sam Gagner, Gilbert Brule · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–1
  4. P2 7:34TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Martin St. Louis · Wrist, 0.00 xG2–2
  5. P2 11:07EDMZack StortiniGWGAssists: Ryan Stone · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–2
Penalties (16)
  1. P1 4:59TBLAndrej Meszaros: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 5:36EDMSam Gagner: Holding2 min
  3. P1 17:38EDMZack Stortini: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 17:38TBLZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
  5. P2 3:15TBLSteve Downie: Tripping2 min
  6. P2 3:15EDMRyan Stone: Fighting5 min
  7. P2 3:15TBLSteve Downie: Fighting5 min
  8. P2 14:53TBLVictor Hedman: Hooking2 min
  9. P2 14:53TBLZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
  10. P2 14:53EDMZack Stortini: Fighting5 min
  11. P2 14:53TBLSteve Downie: Roughing2 min
  12. P2 14:53EDMRyan Stone: Roughing2 min
  13. P2 15:28EDMGilbert Brule: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  14. P3 3:28EDMZack Stortini: Roughing2 min
  15. P3 5:24EDMEthan Moreau: Slashing2 min
  16. P3 13:54TBLZenon Konopka: Holding the stick2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

EDM00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TBL
43% to win57% to win
← EDM attackTBL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Stamkos won the faceoff against Horcoff
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

EDMTBL
32Shots on goal34
3.4Expected goals2.1
51Shot attempts59
21Faceoffs won39
4Power plays4
25Penalty minutes25
19Hits23
15Blocked shots10
6Giveaways10
5Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TBL 2.1 xGEDM 3.4 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TBLEDM

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.

Excitement 47/100 · #643 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.50 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 29% (winner's lowest chance)
EDM 100%5050%50TBL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +22 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 73% of the time.

TBL winsEDM wins

Simulated goal difference (TBL − EDM), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).