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Ice Lab

Mon, Dec 14, 2009·Air Canada Centre, Toronto

Ottawa Senators 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 3

Away

Ottawa Senators

2

Final

Home

Toronto Maple Leafs

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 64% of the time.

TOR winsOTT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
OTT0101716223
TOR0628110324

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 2:15TORJason BlakeAssists: Jeff Finger, Garnet Exelby · Backhand, 0.04 xG0–1
  2. P2 13:07OTTMike FisherAssists: Nick Foligno, Alex Kovalev · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
  3. P2 14:06TORPhil KesselAssists: Alexei Ponikarovsky, Matt Stajan · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
  4. P3 1:12OTTJason SpezzaPPAssists: Daniel Alfredsson, Filip Kuba · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–2
  5. P3 6:02TORFrancois BeaucheminGWGAssists: Garnet Exelby, Jason Blake · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 3:11OTTAnton Volchenkov: Slashing2 min
  2. P1 14:21TORPhil Kessel: Too many men on the ice2 min
  3. P2 2:40OTTMatt Carkner: Fighting5 min
  4. P2 2:40TORColton Orr: Fighting5 min
  5. P2 10:24TORJason Blake: Too many men on the ice2 min
  6. P2 0:00TORAlexei Ponikarovsky: Roughing2 min · PPG
  7. P2 0:00OTTJarkko Ruutu: Roughing2 min
  8. P3 0:43TORMatt Stajan: Holding the stick2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

OTT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TOR
43% to win57% to win
← OTT attackTOR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Stajan
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

OTTTOR
23Shots on goal24
2.4Expected goals1.7
52Shot attempts54
23Faceoffs won29
3Power plays1
9Penalty minutes13
22Hits19
17Blocked shots15
10Giveaways8
5Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TOR 1.7 xGOTT 2.4 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TOROTT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 48/100 · #630 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.55 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 52% (winner's lowest chance)
OTT 100%5050%50TOR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +27 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 64% of the time.

TOR winsOTT wins

Simulated goal difference (TOR − OTT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).