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Ice Lab

Mon, Dec 14, 2009·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit

Phoenix Coyotes 2, Detroit Red Wings 3

Away

Phoenix Coyotes

2

Final

Home

Detroit Red Wings

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 62% of the time.

DET winsPHX wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PHX11417011232
DET21011507332

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 5:25DETKris NewburyAssists: Kris Draper, Drew Miller · Snap, 0.15 xG0–1
  2. P1 10:37DETPatrick EavesSHUnassisted · Snap, 0.03 xG0–2
  3. P1 15:08PHXTaylor PyattAssists: Robert Lang, Ed Jovanovski · Snap, 0.15 xG1–2
  4. P2 2:05DETDerek MeechGWGAssists: Justin Abdelkader, Brad Stuart · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–3
  5. P2 19:23PHXRadim VrbataAssists: Martin Hanzal, Ed Jovanovski · Slap, 0.02 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 3:02DETKris Newbury: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  2. P1 9:15DETKris Newbury: Tripping2 min
  3. P1 10:55PHXPeter Mueller: Tripping2 min
  4. P1 16:45PHXAdrian Aucoin: Elbowing2 min
  5. P2 7:33PHXKeith Yandle: Hooking2 min
  6. P3 4:49PHXScottie Upshall: Hooking2 min
  7. P3 7:03DETNicklas Lidstrom: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHX00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0DET
43% to win57% to win
← PHX attackDET attack →
  1. P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Hanzal
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHXDET
32Shots on goal32
1.9Expected goals2.6
56Shot attempts56
12Faceoffs won31
3Power plays4
8Penalty minutes6
27Hits22
9Blocked shots11
7Giveaways15
3Takeaways10

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

DET 2.6 xGPHX 1.9 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

DETPHX

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.

Excitement 32/100 · #840 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.09 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
PHX 100%5050%50DET 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +14 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 62% of the time.

DET winsPHX wins

Simulated goal difference (DET − PHX), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).