Skip to content
Ice Lab

Wed, Dec 16, 2009·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa

Buffalo Sabres 0, Ottawa Senators 2

Away

Buffalo Sabres

0

Final

Home

Ottawa Senators

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 86% of the time.

OTT winsBUF wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
BUF0507010022
OTT11107110228

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 18:23OTTAlexandre PicardGWGAssists: Chris Kelly · Snap, 0.02 xG0–1
  2. P3 18:24OTTMike FisherAssists: Peter Regin · Wrist, 0.45 xG0–2
Penalties (9)
  1. P2 0:29OTTJarkko Ruutu: Boarding5 min
  2. P2 2:22BUFTim Connolly: Slashing2 min
  3. P2 12:20OTTChris Phillips: Hooking2 min
  4. P2 13:20BUFDerek Roy: Tripping2 min
  5. P2 0:00BUFAdam Mair: Charging2 min
  6. P3 1:37BUFJason Pominville: Interference2 min
  7. P3 8:26OTTChris Kelly: Hooking2 min
  8. P3 10:56OTTJarkko Ruutu: Roughing2 min
  9. P3 18:47OTTJarkko Ruutu: High sticking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BUF00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0OTT
43% to win57% to win
← BUF attackOTT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Kelly won the faceoff against Ellis
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BUFOTT
22Shots on goal28
1.6Expected goals4.1
44Shot attempts48
20Faceoffs won28
6Power plays3
8Penalty minutes13
20Hits23
9Blocked shots12
12Giveaways6
8Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

OTT 4.1 xGBUF 1.6 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

OTTBUF

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.

Excitement 8/100 · #1140 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.69 · 2 goals in reachComeback index 55% (winner's lowest chance)
BUF 100%5050%50OTT 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +17 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 86% of the time.

OTT winsBUF wins

Simulated goal difference (OTT − BUF), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).