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Ice Lab

Thu, Dec 17, 2009·Nationwide Arena, Columbus

Phoenix Coyotes 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 1 (SO)

Away

Phoenix Coyotes

2

Final

Shootout

Home

Columbus Blue Jackets

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 78% of the time.

CBJ winsPHX wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
PHX1601006052227
CBJ011013110051139

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:48PHXKeith YandleUnassisted · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–0
  2. P3 8:19CBJRick NashPPAssists: Fedor Tyutin, Anton Stralman · Slap, 0.06 xG1–1

Shootout

  1. 1. CBJ Kristian Huselius stopped
  2. 2. PHX Radim Vrbata stopped
  3. 3. CBJ Rick Nash scored
  4. 4. PHX Shane Doan scored
  5. 5. CBJ Fedor Tyutin stopped
  6. 6. PHX Robert Lang scored
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 12:27PHXMartin Hanzal: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 14:56PHXRobert Lang: Boarding2 min
  3. P2 5:58PHXPaul Bissonnette: Fighting5 min
  4. P2 5:58CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
  5. P2 7:15PHXScottie Upshall: Too many men on the ice2 min
  6. P2 8:19CBJKristian Huselius: High sticking2 min
  7. P2 13:16CBJJason Chimera: Misconduct10 min
  8. P2 14:08PHXShane Doan: Interference2 min
  9. P2 19:05CBJKristian Huselius: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  10. P3 7:37PHXPetr Prucha: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
  11. P3 18:53PHXScottie Upshall: High sticking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHX00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CBJ
43% to win57% to win
← PHX attackCBJ attack →
  1. P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Lang
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHXCBJ
27Shots on goal39
1.9Expected goals3.7
43Shot attempts74
37Faceoffs won27
2Power plays6
17Penalty minutes19
18Hits20
16Blocked shots10
2Giveaways4
1Takeaways3

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CBJ 3.7 xGPHX 1.9 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CBJPHX

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.

Excitement 50/100 · #609 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.62 · 2 goals in reachComeback index 36% (winner's lowest chance)
PHX 100%5050%50CBJ 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +27 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 78% of the time.

CBJ winsPHX wins

Simulated goal difference (CBJ − PHX), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).