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Ice Lab

Sat, Dec 19, 2009·Pengrowth Saddledome, Calgary

Nashville Predators 5, Calgary Flames 3

Away

Nashville Predators

5

Final

Home

Calgary Flames

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 61% of the time.

CGY winsNSH wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NSH2101624520
CGY17215010332

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 4:22NSHMartin EratAssists: Jerred Smithson, Marcel Goc · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
  2. P1 12:30NSHDavid LegwandAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Martin Erat · Wrist, 0.36 xG2–0
  3. P1 13:41CGYDion PhaneufPPAssists: Jarome Iginla, Mark Giordano · Slap, 0.05 xG2–1
  4. P2 3:48CGYJarome IginlaAssists: Curtis Glencross, Olli Jokinen · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
  5. P2 10:45CGYJarome IginlaAssists: Olli Jokinen · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–3
  6. P2 17:10NSHMarcel GocAssists: Joel Ward, Cody Franson · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–3
  7. P3 4:14NSHCody FransonGWGAssists: Joel Ward, Marcel Goc · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–3
  8. P3 19:34NSHDave ScatchardENAssists: Martin Erat, Kevin Klein · Wrist, 0.72 xG5–3
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 7:39CGYRobyn Regehr: Interference2 min
  2. P1 10:29CGYDavid Moss: Roughing2 min
  3. P1 13:03NSHJerred Smithson: Hooking2 min · PPG
  4. P1 15:32CGYAdam Pardy: Roughing2 min
  5. P1 15:32NSHPatric Hornqvist: Roughing2 min
  6. P2 2:14CGYBrian McGrattan: Fighting5 min
  7. P2 2:14NSHWade Belak: Fighting5 min
  8. P2 5:04CGYCraig Conroy: Tripping2 min
  9. P2 12:34NSHDave Scatchard: Boarding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NSH00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CGY
43% to win57% to win
← NSH attackCGY attack →
  1. P1 20:00Jokinen won the faceoff against Legwand
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NSHCGY
20Shots on goal32
2.6Expected goals2.0
39Shot attempts50
27Faceoffs won30
3Power plays2
11Penalty minutes13
8Hits7
10Blocked shots9
8Giveaways21
7Takeaways10

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CGY 2.0 xGNSH 2.6 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CGYNSH

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.

Excitement 82/100 · #195 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.81 · 8 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 24% (winner's lowest chance)
NSH 100%5050%50CGY 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +27 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 61% of the time.

CGY winsNSH wins

Simulated goal difference (CGY − NSH), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).