Skip to content
Ice Lab

Mon, Dec 21, 2009·Air Canada Centre, Toronto

Buffalo Sabres 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2 (OT)

Away

Buffalo Sabres

3

Final

Overtime

Home

Toronto Maple Leafs

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 53% of the time.

TOR winsBUF wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
BUF113081613330
TOR0132901202236

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:11BUFNathan PaetschAssists: Matt Ellis, Steve Montador · Snap, 0.03 xG1–0
  2. P2 3:41TORViktor StalbergAssists: Tomas Kaberle · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–1
  3. P2 17:20TORIan WhiteAssists: Lee Stempniak, Nikolay Kulemin · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–2
  4. P3 12:59BUFJochen HechtAssists: Drew Stafford, Derek Roy · Backhand, 0.18 xG2–2
  5. OT 3:35BUFDerek RoyGWGAssists: Jochen Hecht, Steve Montador · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–2
Penalties (1)
  1. P1 14:52TORViktor Stalberg: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BUF00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TOR
43% to win57% to win
← BUF attackTOR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Gaustad won the faceoff against Grabovski
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BUFTOR
30Shots on goal36
2.8Expected goals2.7
65Shot attempts64
22Faceoffs won37
1Power plays0
0Penalty minutes2
21Hits31
18Blocked shots15
10Giveaways9
11Takeaways13

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TOR 2.7 xGBUF 2.8 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TORBUF

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.

Excitement 49/100 · #616 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.60 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 16% (winner's lowest chance)
BUF 100%5050%50TOR 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +33 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 53% of the time.

TOR winsBUF wins

Simulated goal difference (TOR − BUF), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).