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Ice Lab

Wed, Dec 23, 2009·Verizon Center, Washington

Buffalo Sabres 2, Washington Capitals 5

Away

Buffalo Sabres

2

Final

Home

Washington Capitals

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 77% of the time.

WSH winsBUF wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
BUF04220010234
WSH21511429538

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:18WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Alexander Semin · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
  2. P1 6:47WSHMike GreenAssists: Eric Fehr, Chris Clark · Slap, 0.03 xG0–2
  3. P2 5:04BUFPaul GaustadAssists: Derek Roy, Jason Pominville · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
  4. P2 10:48WSHBrendan MorrisonGWGAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Mike Knuble · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–3
  5. P2 12:52BUFTim ConnollyAssists: Steve Montador, Mike Grier · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–3
  6. P3 10:55WSHNicklas BackstromPPAssists: Alexander Semin, Alex Ovechkin · Snap, 0.15 xG2–4
  7. P3 12:10WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Brooks Laich, Mike Green · Slap, 0.19 xG2–5
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 8:04WSHAlexander Semin: Tripping2 min
  2. P2 2:52WSHMike Knuble: Interference2 min
  3. P2 3:21BUFDrew Stafford: Roughing2 min
  4. P2 4:08WSHBrendan Morrison: Interference2 min
  5. P3 9:20BUFCraig Rivet: Hooking2 min · PPG
  6. P3 10:29BUFPaul Gaustad: Tripping2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BUF00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0WSH
43% to win57% to win
← BUF attackWSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Gaustad won the faceoff against Laich
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BUFWSH
34Shots on goal38
3.2Expected goals5.1
71Shot attempts66
33Faceoffs won27
3Power plays2
6Penalty minutes6
16Hits21
15Blocked shots24
6Giveaways14
6Takeaways15

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

WSH 5.1 xGBUF 3.2 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

WSHBUF

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.

Excitement 52/100 · #579 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.03 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
BUF 100%5050%50WSH 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +14 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 77% of the time.

WSH winsBUF wins

Simulated goal difference (WSH − BUF), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).