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Ice Lab

Sat, Dec 26, 2009·HSBC Arena, Buffalo

Ottawa Senators 3, Buffalo Sabres 2 (SO)

Away

Ottawa Senators

3

Final

Shootout

Home

Buffalo Sabres

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 71% of the time.

BUF winsOTT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
OTT01921009022340
BUF0121403040222

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 5:15OTTRyan ShannonAssists: Alex Kovalev, Mike Fisher · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–0
  2. P2 6:05OTTChris NeilAssists: Anton Volchenkov, Chris Phillips · Tip-in, 0.20 xG2–0
  3. P2 17:15BUFThomas VanekAssists: Mike Grier, Steve Montador · Slap, 0.04 xG2–1
  4. P2 19:18BUFJason PominvilleAssists: Tim Connolly, Derek Roy · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2

Shootout

  1. 1. OTT Alex Kovalev scored
  2. 2. BUF Thomas Vanek stopped
  3. 3. OTT Mike Fisher scored
  4. 4. BUF Tim Connolly stopped
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 13:27BUFAdam Mair: High sticking2 min
  2. P2 11:17OTTChris Neil: Tripping2 min
  3. P2 17:18OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
  4. P2 17:18BUFAdam Mair: Roughing2 min
  5. P2 18:50OTTChris Campoli: Tripping2 min
  6. P3 2:51OTTJonathan Cheechoo: High sticking2 min
  7. P3 7:48BUFToni Lydman: Holding2 min
  8. P3 16:56BUFTim Kennedy: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

OTT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0BUF
43% to win57% to win
← OTT attackBUF attack →
  1. P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Gaustad
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

OTTBUF
40Shots on goal22
2.7Expected goals1.6
56Shot attempts48
33Faceoffs won32
3Power plays3
8Penalty minutes8
24Hits27
11Blocked shots9
12Giveaways16
2Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

BUF 1.6 xGOTT 2.7 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

BUFOTT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 74/100 · #281 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.84 · 4 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
OTT 100%5050%50BUF 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +22 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 71% of the time.

BUF winsOTT wins

Simulated goal difference (BUF − OTT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).