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Ice Lab

Sat, Dec 26, 2009·RBC Center, Raleigh

Philadelphia Flyers 4, Carolina Hurricanes 3 (SO)

Away

Philadelphia Flyers

4

Final

Shootout

Home

Carolina Hurricanes

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 50% of the time.

CAR winsPHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
PHI2909111072436
CAR01107320020340

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 9:47PHIMike RichardsAssists: Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–0
  2. P1 13:55PHIJeff CarterAssists: Scott Hartnell, Braydon Coburn · Snap, 0.06 xG2–0
  3. P3 9:00PHIDaniel BrièrePPAssists: Kimmo Timonen, Chris Pronger · Snap, 0.07 xG3–0
  4. P3 9:24CARJussi JokinenAssists: Eric Staal, Matt Cullen · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–1
  5. P3 15:58CARBrandon SutterPPAssists: Joni Pitkanen, Cam Ward · Wrist, 0.28 xG3–2
  6. P3 16:47CARJussi JokinenAssists: Eric Staal, Matt Cullen · Wrist, 0.41 xG3–3

Shootout

  1. 1. CAR Tuomo Ruutu stopped
  2. 2. PHI Daniel Brière scored
  3. 3. CAR Jussi Jokinen stopped
  4. 4. PHI Mike Richards scored
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 4:26CARAaron Ward: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 7:28PHIOskars Bartulis: Interference2 min
  3. P2 6:25PHIArron Asham: Too many men on the ice2 min
  4. P2 14:20PHISimon Gagne: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  5. P2 18:03CARJoni Pitkanen: Cross checking2 min
  6. P3 8:37CARJoni Pitkanen: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  7. P3 14:23PHIScott Hartnell: Hooking2 min · PPG
  8. P3 19:00PHIJeff Carter: High sticking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CAR
43% to win57% to win
← PHI attackCAR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Jokinen won the faceoff against Richards
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHICAR
36Shots on goal40
3.9Expected goals3.9
53Shot attempts80
38Faceoffs won32
3Power plays5
10Penalty minutes6
25Hits31
22Blocked shots6
7Giveaways12
6Takeaways10

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CAR 3.9 xGPHI 3.9 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CARPHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 91/100 · #94 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.04 · 6 goals in reach · 3-goal lead cutComeback index 35% (winner's lowest chance)
PHI 100%5050%50CAR 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +40 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 50% of the time.

CAR winsPHI wins

Simulated goal difference (CAR − PHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).